Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-10-17 06:01Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on synthetic rubber, released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute on October 17, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Market Quotes Summary Futures Market - The closing price of BR2511.SHF was 10,895 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan or 2.20% [3] - The settlement price was 11,005 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 1.85% [3] - The trading volume was 18,411 lots, with a 0.00% change, and the position was 76,904 lots, up 27.63% [3] Spot Market - Sinopec Chemical Sales' high - cis butadiene rubber price decreased by 300 yuan/ton this cycle, and PetroChina's main sales companies' price decreased by 500 yuan/ton [3] - As of October 16, 2025, Sinopec Chemical Sales' BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,200 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's main sales companies' BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [3] Price Differences - The month - to - month spread between the second and first contracts was 25 yuan/ton, up 150.00% [3] - The spread between BR and RU was 5.88% [3] - The spread between BR and NR was 11.94% [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Trends - The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to decline and then rebounded rapidly this cycle. The spot price ranged from 10,600 to 11,400 yuan/ton [3] - At the end of the cycle, under the influence of factors such as increased domestic maintenance losses in October - December and the US interest rate cut, the futures and spot prices of butadiene rubber rebounded rapidly [3] Supply and Demand - The external sales resources of raw materials were sufficient this cycle, but the spot negotiation focus gradually stopped falling, and the weak cost situation of butadiene rubber was slightly alleviated [3] - Due to the successive maintenance of butadiene rubber plants of Qilu Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical, Sinopec's short - and medium - term circulation resources are expected to decrease significantly [3] - There is marginal production profit in private butadiene rubber, leading to an increase in supply, and the price of private resources in the spot market has been lower than that of the two major oil companies [3] - Downstream procurement continued to suppress prices, causing the spot negotiation focus to decline continuously [3] Group 4: Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: The BR market is expected to consolidate [3] - Arbitrage: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]