美联储内部分歧不改宽松预期，贵金属偏强运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite differences in the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, the overall monetary policy tone strengthens the market's expectation of loose trading. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will be mainly fluctuating and strengthening in the near future, and the silver price will also maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - There are differences within the Fed on the path of interest rate cuts. Governor Waller advocates a cautious pace of 25 basis points per cut, while Milan calls for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. Trump said he had a phone call with Russian President Putin and would meet with him in Budapest to discuss ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 958.00 yuan/gram and closed at 966.42 yuan/gram, a change of 0.63% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 981.90 yuan/gram, up 1.60% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,938.00 yuan/kg and closed at 12,017.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.43% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,204,572 lots, and the open interest was 468,355 lots. The night session closed at 12,208 yuan/kg, up 1.59% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 16, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.973%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.553%, a decrease of 0.21 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 493 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position decreased by 288 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 611,400 lots, a change of 8.99% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position increased by 2 lots, and the short position decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 3,239,346 lots, a change of 8.63% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 1,022.60 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,423 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On October 16, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -7.79 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,446.70 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 80.42, a change of 0.21% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 79.70, a change of -3.10% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On October 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 87,610 kg, a change of 58.78% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,365,382 kg, a change of -19.66% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 15,260 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,290 kg [7].