化工日报：本周EG延续累库，成本端反弹-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The price of the main EG futures contract closed at 4,089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.79% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,126 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.10%. The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$66/ton, up $1/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -526 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 54.1 tons, up 3.4 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons, up 5.0 tons. The inventory continued to accumulate [1]. - On the supply side, domestic EG production is at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. On the demand side, pre - holiday stocking has slightly boosted demand, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Under the new device production, there is great pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has bottomed out and rebounded [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The main EG futures contract closed at 4,089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.79% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,126 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.10%. The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$66/ton, up $1/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -526 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread No specific data provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Pre - holiday stocking has slightly boosted demand, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 54.1 tons, up 3.4 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons, up 5.0 tons. From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main ports was 8.7 tons, and the planned arrival this week was 10.2 tons at the main ports and 2.5 tons at the secondary ports. The inventory continued to accumulate [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. There is great pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has bottomed out and rebounded [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2601 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3].