聚烯烃日报：盘面短期止跌，继续关注成本端扰动-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure due to factors such as increased inventory, insufficient demand, new device production, and weakened cost support from falling oil prices. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - The PP market is affected by weakening costs (falling oil and propane prices). Supply is increasing while demand fails to meet expectations, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to the impact on propane supply and marginal device operations [2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both L and PP in the single - side trading. For cross - period trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05. For cross - variety trading, shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3] Summaries by Directory Market News and Key Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6929 yuan/ton (+19), and the PP main contract is 6618 yuan/ton (+23). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes [1] - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate is 81.8% (-2.2%), and PP operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit is 434.2 yuan/ton (-18.2), PP oil - based production profit is - 135.8 yuan/ton (-18.2), and PDH - based PP production profit is 64.9 yuan/ton (-109.7) [1] - Imports and Exports: LL import profit is - 165.0 yuan/ton (-56.8), PP import profit is - 537.9 yuan/ton (+16.1), and PP export profit is 26.9 dollars/ton (+3.3) [1] - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.2% (+0.5%) [1] Market Analysis - PE: After the holiday, inventory of major plastic producers has increased significantly. Demand is insufficient, and new device production and falling oil prices have weakened cost support. Supply is expected to increase, demand is lower than expected, and cost support is weakening. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - PP: The recent weakening of the PP market is due to falling oil and propane prices. Supply is increasing, demand fails to meet expectations, and cost support is weak. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to propane supply and marginal device operations [2] Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see for both L and PP [3] - Cross - period: Reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [3] - Cross - variety: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3]