新能源及有色金属日报：社会库存小幅下滑-20251017

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the average of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is becoming more prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue, and if the consumption peak expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is $139.83 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -90 yuan/ton to 21,920 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, with a spot premium of -40 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is -110 yuan/ton to 21,890 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -100 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is -110 yuan/ton to 21,930 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan/ton. [1] - Futures: On October 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,065 yuan/ton and closed at 21,940 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 91,938 lots, and the open interest was 87,075 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,085 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,880 yuan/ton. [2] - Inventory: As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 162,700 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 38,300 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have dropped, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm is high. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation in China is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the consumption peak expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]