新能源及有色金属日报：库存继续去化，碳酸锂盘面小幅反弹-20251017

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 72,820 yuan/ton and closed at 74,940 yuan/ton, with a 2.52% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 268,890 lots, and the open interest was 177,951 lots, down from 188,523 lots the previous day. The current basis was -700 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 30,456 lots, a decrease of 2,620 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 820 US dollars/ton, a change of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and watching, and the overall market trading activity was flat [1]. - New production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October was expected to have growth potential. The power market of new energy vehicles was growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger use, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons, with a slight increase in production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt - lake, and recycling. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons, with a decrease in smelter and downstream inventory and a slight increase in intermediate inventory [1]. 2. Company News - On October 14, Hainan Mining held a shipping ceremony for the first batch of lithium concentrate products from its Malian Bugoni lithium mine project. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate would be shipped from Bugoni to the Port of San Pedro in Côte d'Ivoire and then to Yangpu Port in Hainan by cargo ship to provide core raw materials for Hainan Mining's lithium salt processing project [2]. 3. Strategy - The futures market rebounded before the close on the day, mainly affected by the overall strength of commodities, inventory reduction, and warehouse receipt cancellation. There was some support during the consumption peak season, the short - term supply - demand pattern was good, and the inventory was continuously decreasing, providing some support to the market. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbance at the mine end had weakened. If the mines resumed production and consumption weakened later, the market might decline [3]. - For unilateral trading, short - term range - bound operations were recommended. If the market rebounded significantly, selling hedging could be carried out at high prices. There were no specific strategies for options, inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [3][4].