国证国际港股晨报-20251017

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results with the Hang Seng Index down 0.09%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.09%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.18% [2] - The total trading volume in the market was HKD 275.43 billion, with short selling accounting for 19.14% of the total trading volume [2] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 15.82 billion, with the most bought stocks being Zijin Mining International, Xiaomi Group, and Alibaba, while the most sold were SMIC, GigaDevice, and Tencent [2][3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The education sector experienced significant gains, with stocks like Thinking Education up 26.48% and New Oriental up 8.86%, likely due to positive policy signals [3] - Coal stocks rose sharply, with China Qinfa up 8.03% and China Coal Energy up 7.26%, driven by weather conditions and increased demand for coal as winter approaches [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Jingneng Clean Energy - Jingneng Clean Energy (579.HK) is a leading gas-fired power generation company in Beijing, holding 8 gas-fired power plants with a total capacity of 4,702 MW [9] - The company is expected to see significant growth in its wind and solar segments, with projected operating profit CAGRs of 27.9% and 9.4% from 2020 to 2024 [8] - The company has a robust project pipeline with over 12 GW of installed and reserved capacity, focusing on strategic emerging projects in renewable energy [8][10] Group 4: Industry Trends - The renewable energy sector is becoming a primary power source in China, with wind and solar accounting for approximately 20% of total electricity generation [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated policies to promote the marketization of renewable energy projects, ensuring stable returns for existing projects while introducing competition for new ones [10] - Jingneng Clean Energy is well-positioned in the capital's electricity market, benefiting from its ample project resources and competitive advantages [10] Group 5: Financial Projections - The report initiates coverage on Jingneng Clean Energy with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 3.20, projecting net profits of RMB 3.46 billion, 3.78 billion, and 4.14 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with dividends projected at 42%, 44%, and 46% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [11]