新能源及有色金属日报：受板块带动，价格探底后略有反弹-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - For the nickel variety, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, although stainless - steel prices are already at a low level, inventory accumulation has begun, material cost support has weakened, and demand falls short of expectations, so it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation state [5]. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On October 16, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 120,950 yuan/ton and closed at 121,270 yuan/ton, a 0.21% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 67,146 (-16,615) lots, and the open interest was 66,228 (-2,453) lots. The contract slightly opened lower, the price bottomed out and then rebounded slightly, and the overall non - ferrous metal sector had a small rebound under the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October [1]. - Nickel Ore: The nickel ore market remained on the sidelines, and prices were stable. Sea freight decreased due to reduced ship demand. The 1.4% nickel ore tender of the Eramen mine in Zambales, Philippines, was settled at FOB 43.5. Downstream iron plants' profits were affected, and they were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories started "winter storage" of raw materials. The nickel ore market in Indonesia continued to have a loose supply pattern, and the domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) was expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 dollars, with the current mainstream premium at +26 [1]. - Spot: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot prices were basically stable, and the spot premium of each brand did not fluctuate. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 26,474 (-84) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,344 (+3,588) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - There are no strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On October 16, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,565 yuan/ton and closed at 12,615 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 125,870 (+12,654) lots, and the open interest was 201,245 (-4,171) lots. The contract slightly opened lower at night, was driven by Shanghai nickel and the black sector to further bottom out, and then followed the rebound of Shanghai nickel to rise slightly at the close [3]. - Spot: Overall spot trading was still light, and quotes continued to decline. However, after the futures market bottomed out and rebounded in the afternoon, market activity and prices rebounded slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,950 (-50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,950 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 445 to 745 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 938.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - There are no strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].