铝产业链日评：加征关税存不确定和美联储降息预期扰动铝价-20251017

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251017: Uncertainty of Tariff Imposition and Expectation of Fed Rate Cut Affect Aluminum Prices [1] Group 2: Industry Price and Market Data Alumina - National average alumina price on 2025-10-16 was 2942.48 yuan/ton, down 11.84 yuan from the previous day; prices in Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Guizhou decreased by 5 yuan/ton [2] - Australian alumina FOB price was 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - Alumina futures closing price was 2797 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; trading volume was 241,190 lots, down 37,670 lots; open interest was 336,453 lots, up 5,113 lots; inventory was 217,032 tons, down 599 tons [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum semi-average price was 20,950 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; prices in various regions showed different changes [2] - Electrolytic aluminum futures closing price was 20,980 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; trading volume was 179,878 lots, down 16,299 lots; open interest was 194,298 lots, up 11,135 lots; inventory was 71,394 tons, down 148 tons [2] Aluminum Alloy - SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) average price was 22,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; prices of various types of ADC12 showed different changes [2] - Cast aluminum alloy futures closing price (active contract) was 20,540 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; trading volume was 3,638 lots, up 143 lots; open interest was 12,716 lots, down 53 lots [2] Overseas Aluminum - LME 3-month aluminum futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,576 US dollars/ton, up 44 US dollars [2] - LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 27.94 US dollars/ton, down 11.16 US dollars; 3 - 15 month contract spread was -43.74 US dollars/ton, up 127.75 US dollars [2] - Shanghai-London aluminum price ratio was 7.6189, down 0.12 [2] Group 3: Core Views and Trading Strategies Alumina - Domestic alumina production is at a loss, but supply-demand is expected to be loose, making prices likely to fall rather than rise [2] - Trading strategy: mainly short when prices rise to high levels, pay attention to support levels around 2,600 - 2,800 yuan/ton and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,600 yuan/ton (view score: -1) [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - Fed's future rate cut and end of balance sheet reduction are expected, but uncertainty about Sino-US trade tariffs remains; prices may be weak first and then strong [2] - Trading strategy: mainly long when prices fall, pay attention to support levels around 20,300 - 20,600 yuan/ton and resistance levels around 21,300 - 22,000 yuan/ton; for LME aluminum, support levels are around 2,600 - 2,700 US dollars/ton and resistance levels are around 2,900 - 3,000 US dollars/ton (view score: 0) [2] Aluminum Alloy - Fed's future rate cut and end of balance sheet reduction are expected, but uncertainty about Sino-US trade tariffs remains; prices may be weak first and then strong [2] - Trading strategy: mainly long when prices fall, or lightly short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy on rallies, pay attention to support levels around 20,000 - 20,200 yuan/ton and resistance levels around 20,800 - 21,000 yuan/ton (view score: 0) [2]