20251017申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251017

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the strong side. The tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, positive growth in power grid investment and automobile production and sales, negative growth in home appliance production scheduling, and the Indonesian mine accident that may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap all support copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has gradually stabilized after the Sino - US trade confrontation [2]. - Zinc prices will follow copper prices. Although the short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise, due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Overall, the supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Night - session copper prices closed higher. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. Power grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has stabilized after the Sino - US trade confrontation. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. The short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Zinc supply - demand difference is not obvious overall, but it will follow copper prices in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 85,050 | 35 | 10,620 | - 11.16 | 138,350 | - 450 | | Aluminum | 20,975 | 0 | 2,796 | 17.52 | 498,975 | - 4,975 | | Zinc | 21,940 | - 55 | 2,968 | 137.20 | 38,350 | - 250 | | Nickel | 121,270 | - 1,580 | 15,230 | - 205.73 | 246,756 | 3,498 | | Lead | 17,100 | - 210 | 1,972 | - 44.99 | 254,775 | 8,225 | | Tin | 281,350 | 650 | 35,725 | - 129.00 | 2,575 | 190 | [2]