Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again and is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In terms of capital, the domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the RMB's appreciation, external funds may also flow into the domestic market. In Q4, the market style may return to value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 4614.00, 4599.60, 4590.00, and 4566.80 respectively, with increases of 17.60, 15.80, 17.40, and 15.60. The trading volumes were 30168.00, 23168.00, 87781.00, and 12356.00, and the open interests were 23420.00, 32933.00, 161774.00, and 56692.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 12399.00, 8673.00, 1346.00, and 100.00 [1]. - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3019.20, 3019.60, 3019.00, and 3019.00 respectively, with increases of 22.40, 25.60, 24.00, and 23.00. The trading volumes were 13559.00, 10295.00, 47257.00, and 5200.00, and the open interests were 9009.00, 11468.00, 69593.00, and 13814.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 4694.00, 4554.00, 5999.00, and 514.00 [1]. - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7225.40, 7126.40, 7062.00, and 6895.20 respectively, with decreases of 46.60, 64.00, 72.40, and 76.80. The trading volumes were 29413.00, 23838.00, 88010.00, and 17287.00, and the open interests were 23203.00, 39176.00, 138071.00, and 52601.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 11052.00, 6383.00, - 3447.00, and - 343.00 [1]. - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7403.40, 7293.20, 7205.00, and 6981.40 respectively, with decreases of 48.20, 64.40, 68.80, and 72.80. The trading volumes were 39286.00, 30514.00, 153865.00, and 26088.00, and the open interests were 33142.00, 54135.00, 185185.00, and 83019.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 14769.00, 7917.00, - 6410.00, and - 1488.00 [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 14.40, 0.40, - 99.00, and - 110.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 15.00, - 1.20, - 82.00, and - 93.20 [1]. 2. Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous - day values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4618.42, 3019.20, 7231.53, and 7401.84 respectively, with changes of 0.26%, 0.59%, - 0.86%, and - 1.09% [1]. - Industry Indexes: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption sectors had changes of 2.26%, - 1.95%, 0.57%, and - 0.12% respectively. The major consumption, medical and health, real - estate and finance, and information technology sectors had changes of 0.80%, 0.36%, 0.84%, and - 0.67% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities sectors had changes of 1.58% and 0.71% respectively [1]. 3. Futures - Spot Basis - CSI 300 - related Basis: The previous - day basis values of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (the quarter after next - CSI 300) were - 4.42, - 18.82, - 28.42, and - 51.62 respectively [1]. - SSE 50 - related Basis: The previous - day basis values of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (the quarter after next - SSE 50) were 0.00, 0.40, - 0.20, and - 0.20 respectively [1]. - CSI 500 - related Basis: The previous - day basis values of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (the quarter after next - CSI 500) were - 6.13, - 105.13, - 169.53, and - 336.33 respectively [1]. - CSI 1000 - related Basis: The previous - day basis values of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (the quarter after next - CSI 1000) were 1.56, - 108.64, - 196.84, and - 420.44 respectively [1]. 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous - day values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3916.23, 13086.41, 8054.30, and 3037.44 respectively, with changes of 0.10%, - 0.25%, - 0.65%, and 0.38% respectively [1]. - Overseas Indexes: The previous - day values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25888.51, 47672.67, 6629.07, and 24272.19 respectively, with changes of - 0.09%, 1.76%, - 0.63%, and 0.38% respectively [1]. 5. Macroeconomic Information - China's Commerce Ministry: The Ministry responded to multiple hot issues, was open to equal consultations with the US on an equal - footing basis, would optimize the permit process for rare - earth export controls, take measures to safeguard Chinese enterprises' rights, and introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade [2]. - US Treasury Secretary: Stated that if China stopped strict rare - earth export controls, the US might extend the three - month exemption for additional tariffs on Chinese goods, and that President Trump was ready to meet Chinese leaders soon [2]. - National Tax Data: National enterprises accelerated equipment updates, and the consumer goods trade - in policy was effective. In the first three quarters, industrial enterprises' procurement of mechanical equipment increased by 9.4% year - on - year, with private enterprises' procurement up 13% year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle sales increased by 30.1% year - on - year [2]. 6. Industry Information - Photovoltaic Industry: Since the second half of this year, the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry has attracted attention. New photovoltaic capacity control policies may be introduced, and the rumor of a polysilicon storage platform is false, with the potential storage plan facing many obstacles [2]. - Solid - state Battery: Chinese scientists solved a key charging problem, enabling a leap - forward upgrade in solid - state battery performance, with the potential to break through the 1000 - kilometer range ceiling [2]. - Intelligent Connected Vehicles: The 2025 World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference was held, and a national application pilot base for AI in the automotive field was launched. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote "vehicle - road - cloud integration" and standard - setting for autonomous driving [2]. - Computing Power: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched a "millisecond computing power" initiative, aiming for a 70% coverage rate of the millisecond - latency computing power circle in urban areas by 2027 [2].
申银万国期货早间策略-20251017
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-10-17 06:23