钢材去库叠加铁??位，暂缓板块品种价格下?压

Sector Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" for various products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [8][9][10]. Core Views - The current fundamentals reflected by yesterday's steel inventory data are better than before, and the prices of sector products showed a trend of first falling and then rising during the day. At night, high hot metal production still supports the demand for furnace materials, but the increasing inventory pressure of iron ore makes its price under pressure, while coke and coking coal prices are relatively strong due to further inventory reduction [2][3]. - Recently, the de - stocking of steel and the high level of hot metal production have temporarily alleviated the market's concerns about the negative feedback of the industrial chain, but further price increases depend on the continuous improvement of fundamentals. There are still optimistic expectations for the upcoming domestic major conference [4]. Summary by Product Steel - Core Logic: Spot market transactions are generally weak, but improved compared to yesterday. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, and iron - water production has slightly decreased at a high level. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products has recovered to some extent, but the recovery height is limited. The inventory of five major steel products has decreased after the festival, but the de - stocking speed is slower than the same period last year, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is still accumulating [8]. - Outlook: The recovery of post - festival demand is limited, and the steel inventory is at a moderately high level, with fundamental pressure still existing. However, there may be positive signals from the major conference at the end of October, and the cost side still has some support under the high hot - metal background. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [8]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port transactions decreased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The demand for iron ore still has support under high hot - metal production, but the market's expectation of weakening hot - metal production has increased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore still has support, but the overall pressure is not prominent. There are still macro - expectation disturbances before the important conference, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations restricts the upside space. It is expected that the iron - ore price will oscillate in the short term [9]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has recovered to the pre - festival level, and the demand has increased slightly due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival. Steel enterprises have slightly increased their inventory, and the available days of inventory have increased significantly [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the current pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the scrap - steel price will follow the finished - product price in the short term [10]. Coke - Core Logic: The futures price of coke oscillated strongly. The supply has tightened due to factors such as weak coking profits and enterprise maintenance. The demand has weakened slightly with the decline of hot - metal production, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month [12]. - Outlook: Although there is an expectation of weakening hot - metal production, it is still strong in the short term. The coke supply is difficult to increase, and the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. However, due to the weak steel price, the price increase is difficult to implement. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [12]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The coking - coal futures price oscillated strongly. The overall supply is stable, and the import volume from Mongolia has returned to normal. The demand for coking coal still has short - term rigid support, and the overall inventory is at a low level [13]. - Outlook: The incremental space for coal mine production is limited, and the sustainability of Mongolian coal imports remains to be observed. The coking - coal price is expected to be supported in the short term due to strong policy expectations [13]. Glass - Core Logic: The market is worried about the supply disruption in Shahe, and the cost may increase after the gas conversion. The demand has weakened, and the inventory has accumulated. The upstream manufacturers are under pressure to reduce prices [14]. - Outlook: The spot sales are weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply is at a moderately high level, and the demand for heavy soda ash is stable and improving, while the demand for light soda ash has weakened significantly. The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the cost support has been strengthened [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the soda - ash price will oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and some manufacturers' inventories are accumulating, suppressing the price. The cost of port ores is weak, and the demand has some resilience. The production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the price center may decline after the peak season due to pessimistic supply - demand expectations [17]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost - support expectation has been strengthened, and the supply pressure has accumulated. The demand from steel mills and the metal - magnesium industry has different trends [18]. - Outlook: In the short term, peak demand season, policy expectations, and strong costs support the price, but there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season due to the loosening supply - demand relationship [18].