氯碱日报：氯碱装置检修周度供应缩减-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market shows a pattern of reduced supply this week due to autumn maintenance, but new production capacities are gradually ramping up, resulting in an overall ample supply The market has seen some improvement in trading volume, with social inventories reaching an inflection point but still at a high level Exports are facing policy uncertainties, and the overall supply - demand situation remains weak The PVC futures price is under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts [3] - The 32% caustic soda spot price shows mixed trends This week, the production has slightly decreased due to increased maintenance, while the demand from the alumina industry is stable, and the non - aluminum end's purchasing sentiment has improved There are uncertainties in the start - up of new alumina plants in Guangxi, and the cost support for caustic soda still exists [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,694 yuan/ton (+17), the East China basis is - 94 yuan/ton (-17), and the South China basis is - 34 yuan/ton (-17) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,600 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,660 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 12 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 622 yuan/ton (+153), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 538 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit is 4.4 US dollars/ton (-2.4) [1] - Inventory and start - up: The in - plant PVC inventory is 38.4 million tons (+8.4), the social PVC inventory is 55.7 million tons (+1.9), the calcium carbide - based PVC start - up rate is 74.73% (-7.03%), the ethylene - based PVC start - up rate is 76.10% (-2.44%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.14% (-5.66%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 58.3 million tons (-19.3) [1] Market Analysis - The PVC futures price may rebound with the macro - sentiment after a volatile decline The supply has decreased this week due to autumn maintenance, but new production capacities are gradually ramping up, resulting in an overall ample supply The social inventory has reached an inflection point but is still at a high level Exports are facing policy uncertainties, and the overall supply - demand situation remains weak The high - level futures warehouse receipts are putting pressure on the PVC futures price [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - delivery spread: Go short on the V01 - 05 spread when it is high - Inter - commodity spread: No recommendation [4] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,453 yuan/ton (+15), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 141 yuan/ton (-15) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1,290 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 939.5 yuan/ton (+39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 237.53 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,241.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.33 million tons (-1.79), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 million tons (+0.34), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 81.40% (-2.90%) [2] - Downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 86.32% (+0.14%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 66.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 88.61% (-1.02%) [2] Market Analysis - The 32% caustic soda spot price shows mixed trends This week, the production has slightly decreased due to increased maintenance, while the demand from the alumina industry is stable, and the non - aluminum end's purchasing sentiment has improved There are uncertainties in the start - up of new alumina plants in Guangxi, and the cost support for caustic soda still exists [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - delivery spread: Pay attention to the downstream purchasing and the start - up progress of alumina plants in Guangxi, and go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity spread: No recommendation [5]