南华期货玉米、淀粉产业日报-20251017

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The continuous futures of corn on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rebounded for three consecutive days after hitting the lowest point of the year on Tuesday, with the forward contracts leading the rise. The rebound was driven by an oversold rebound and capital flight. The reason for the capital flight was the increase in spot purchase entities. By the close on the 16th, all contracts except the 11th had risen in October. The 1 - 5 spread widened to 99 yuan/ton, indicating a market expectation of tight supply in the corn market next year, while the near - term contracts were still under pressure from the new grain listing [2]. - In late October, the listing volume of new - season corn will continue to increase. Although the expectation has improved, the current fundamental pressure still suppresses the spot price. About 30% of the new - season corn is yet to be harvested. It is too early to judge that the corn price has bottomed out, and the end of October or early November is an important time point [2]. - On Thursday, CBOT corn futures rose for the third consecutive day, reaching a one - and - a - half - week high, as reports indicated that the corn yield per unit in some parts of the US Midwest was lower than expected, and rainfall forecasts might delay field operations [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - Spot Prices: In the corn market, the price at Jinzhou Port was 2140 yuan with a daily increase of 10 yuan, at Shekou Port was 2310 yuan with no change, and in Harbin was 2000 yuan with no change. In the corn starch market, the price in Shandong was 2730 yuan with a daily decrease of 10 yuan, in Jilin was 2550 yuan with no change, and in Heilongjiang was 2460 yuan with no change. The Jinzhou Port main - contract basis was 29 yuan with no change, and the Shandong main - contract basis was 354 yuan with a daily increase of 15 yuan [4]. - Futures Prices: For corn futures on October 16, compared with October 15, the 11 - contract price rose from 2101 to 2111 yuan (0.48% increase), the 01 - contract rose from 2127 to 2136 yuan (0.42% increase), the 03 - contract rose from 2157 to 2166 yuan (0.42% increase), the 05 - contract rose from 2218 to 2235 yuan (0.77% increase), the 07 - contract rose from 2232 to 2247 yuan (0.67% increase), and the 09 - contract remained unchanged at 2262 yuan. For corn starch futures, the 11 - contract price decreased from 2401 to 2376 yuan (-1.04% decrease), the 01 - contract decreased from 2418 to 2417 yuan (-0.04% decrease), the 03 - contract rose from 2435 to 2437 yuan (0.08% increase), the 05 - contract rose from 2529 to 2541 yuan (0.47% increase), the 07 - contract rose from 2539 to 2552 yuan (0.51% increase), and the 09 - contract rose from 2571 to 2594 yuan (0.89% increase). The average wheat price rose from 2464 to 2465 yuan (0.04% increase) [6]. - US Market: The CBOT corn main - contract price was 422 with a daily increase of 4.75 (1.14% increase), the COBT soybean main - contract price was 1011.75 with a daily increase of 4.75 (0.47% increase), the CBOT wheat main - contract price was 502.5 with a daily increase of 3.75 (0.75% increase). The US Gulf完税 price was 2098.49 with a daily increase of 8.18 (0.39% increase) and an import profit of 211.51, and the US West完税 price was 1950.42 with a daily increase of 8.44 (0.43% increase) and an import profit of 359.58 [27]. Factors Affecting the Market - Likely Positive Factors: The number of spot purchase entities continued to increase, making it more difficult to purchase at low prices. The pressure of domestic corn production increase was limited, imports remained low, and the futures forward contracts were expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: The pig industry was in the process of capacity regulation, which might affect the long - term feed demand for corn. The release of new - season supply pressure still needed time, and the spot price continued to be under pressure. The number of incoming vehicles in Shandong remained high but was gradually decreasing, and the purchase price stopped falling. Rainfall in North China continued to affect the spot harvest [5]. Other Information - The registered corn warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 36709 lots on the previous day [2].