光大期货：农产品日报（2025 年10 月17日）-20251017

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillatory rebound [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillatory [1] - Oils: Upward [1] - Eggs: Oscillatory [1] - Pork: Oscillatory [2] Core Views - Corn futures showed a low - level stabilization after a sharp fall, with the pressure of high - yield expectations gradually released. The cold weather in the Northeast reduced the difficulty of corn storage, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. However, the spot market was still under pressure due to factors such as concentrated supply in the production area and weak demand in the sales area [1]. - CBOT soybean futures rose due to strong domestic demand in the US, but the domestic protein meal was weakly oscillatory. The domestic spot was loose, and the sufficient supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter suppressed the market [1]. - BMD palm oil rose despite weak demand from India. Domestic vegetable oils recovered with the improvement of the macro - sentiment. The short - term pressure exists, but the medium - to - long - term trend is optimistic [1]. - Egg futures oscillated and corrected. The spot price rebounded due to the boost of low - price eggs to demand, but the high inventory of laying hens and the increase in egg production rate brought supply pressure [1]. - Pork futures continued to be weak, and the spot price continued to decline. The current market was in a supply - demand game. If the enthusiasm for second - fattening decreased and the slaughter volume could not absorb the excess supply, the price was expected to be weakly oscillatory next week [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - Corn: This week, corn futures first fell and then rose. The spot price continued to decline, with the price in the Northeast and North China weakening. The sales area also saw a price drop. Technically, the pressure of high - yield expectations was released, and the cold weather made farmers reluctant to sell [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean futures rose on Thursday due to strong domestic demand. In China, the protein meal was weakly oscillatory, with a loose spot market and sufficient supply in the fourth quarter [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil rose, and domestic vegetable oils recovered. The short - term pressure exists, but the medium - to - long - term trend is optimistic. Attention should be paid to changes in international trade relations [1]. - Eggs: Egg futures oscillated and corrected. The spot price rebounded due to the boost of low - price eggs to demand, but the high inventory of laying hens and the increase in egg production rate brought supply pressure [1]. - Pork: This week, pork first stabilized and then fell. The spot price continued to decline, and the current market was in a supply - demand game. The price was expected to be weakly oscillatory next week [2]. Market Information - From October 1 - 15, 2025, the yield, oil extraction rate, and production of Malaysian palm oil all increased compared to the same period last month [2]. - Indonesia is considering implementing a 1% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blended fuel plan for international flights departing from Jakarta and Bali in 2026 [2]. - From October 5 - 11, Brazil exported 1,538,934 tons of soybeans, 266,768 tons of soybean meal, and 902,772 tons of corn. From October 12 - 18, it plans to export 2,153,936 tons of soybeans, 672,337 tons of soybean meal, and 1,889,800 tons of corn [3]. - Recently, international and domestic palm oil prices have oscillated downward, and the import price inversion of China's near - term palm oil shipments has slightly widened [3]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc., but no specific analysis of these spreads is given [4][5][6][10][14]. - Contract Basis: The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc., but no specific analysis of these bases is given [12][13][16][18][22]. Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and has rich experience in leading teams [26]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures trading experience and has won many awards [26]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pork at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by many media [26].