光大期货碳酸锂日报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 16, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract rose 2.52% to 74,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 73,130 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,620 tons to 30,456 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons. Lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 100 tons to 13,164 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 96 tons to 2,791 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 210 tons to 3,114 tons, and lithium extraction from recycling increased by 25 tons to 1,997 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 271 tons to 17,247 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials increased by 114 tons to 17,963 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 572 tons to 85,039 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 970 tons to 102,818 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 2,030 tons to 57,735 tons, intermediate link inventory increasing by 350 tons to 40,640 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 464 tons to 34,283 tons [3]. - This week, the warehouse receipt inventory has been continuously decreasing. With supply - side news disturbances and good weekly data, the futures price fluctuated and rose yesterday. Currently, it is the peak demand season, lithium carbonate is being destocked, and lithium ore prices are firm. The weekly fundamentals further strengthen the price support. There are still expectations of project resumptions, so in the short term, it will still run with a bias towards fluctuations, but the volatility may increase [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot, and warehouse receipt data: The lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract rose 2.52% to 74,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 73,130 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,620 tons to 30,456 tons [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory data: Supply increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons from different sources. Demand - side production and inventory of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate both increased. The overall inventory decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons, with different trends in downstream, intermediate, and upstream inventories [3]. - Market trend judgment: Due to factors such as continuous destocking of warehouse receipts, supply - side news disturbances, and good weekly data, the futures price rose. With the peak demand season, destocking of lithium carbonate, and firm lithium ore prices, the short - term market will run with fluctuations and increasing volatility [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Price changes of various products: Futures contract prices (主力合约收盘价 and 连续合约收盘价) increased, prices of some lithium ores (such as lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone) increased, prices of some lithium salts (such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide) decreased, and prices of some other products (such as hexafluorophosphate lithium) increased [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased [5]. - Cell and battery prices: Most cell and battery prices remained unchanged, except for the cobalt - acid lithium cell price which increased slightly [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][14]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and some international - domestic price differences, as well as the basis from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][22]. - Precursor and cathode material prices: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][29]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium - iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium - iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 27, 2025, to October 16, 2025 [37][38][39]. - Production costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [41][42].