供应高位承压，纯苯苯乙烯仍偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene market remains in a low - level oscillation. The supply pressure persists due to high - level domestic production and limited demand absorption. The price is likely to fall rather than rise in the long - term, with short - term month - to - month spread strengthening. Attention should be paid to import rhythm and downstream open - run sustainability [2] - The supply of styrene is temporarily tightened due to concentrated equipment maintenance. It will be in a tight - balance state from October to November. The short - term inventory is expected to decline slightly, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline. However, the cost support weakens, and the price fluctuates with crude oil. Short - term, it is expected to maintain a range - bound and strong trend [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Information - Price: On October 16, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.92% at 6600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 65 (- 65 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed up 1.17% at 5644 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5685 yuan/ton (+ 95 yuan/ton) [2] - Cost: On October 16, Brent crude oil closed at 57.8 dollars/barrel (- 0.9 dollars/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at 61.9 dollars/barrel (- 0.5 dollars/barrel) [2] - Inventory: Styrene port inventory was 19.7 tons (- 0.5 tons), a month - on - month de - stocking of 2.7%. Pure benzene port inventory was 9.0 tons (- 0.1 tons), a month - on - month de - stocking of 1.1% [2] - Supply: Styrene's weekly output was 33.9 tons (- 0.8 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 71.9% (- 1.7%) [2] - Demand: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries picked up. The capacity utilization rate of EPS was 62.5% (+ 21.8%), ABS was 73.1% (+ 0.6%), and PS was 53.8% (- 0.8%) [2] 3.1.2 Views - Pure benzene: Domestic pure benzene device maintenance was postponed, and some long - stopped small devices planned to resume operation. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter remained. Although there were new downstream device productions, the terminal market was weak, and the high supply was difficult to be digested. The market was mainly in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price was prone to fall [2] - Styrene: The supply was temporarily tightened due to equipment maintenance. Newly - put - into - production devices might start production in mid - to - late October. From October to November, it would maintain a tight - balance state. The demand was supported by the rigid needs of ABS and EPS enterprises, and the short - term inventory was expected to decline slightly [3] 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Price Data - Styrene and pure benzene prices: From October 13 to 14, the main styrene futures contract decreased by 2.18%, and the spot price remained unchanged. The main pure benzene futures contract decreased by 1.50%, and the price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 1.49%. The CFR price of pure benzene in China increased by 2.15% [5] - Upstream prices: From October 13 to 14, Brent crude oil increased by 1.00%, WTI crude oil increased by 0.94%, and the price of naphtha remained unchanged [5] 3.2.2 Output and Inventory Data - Output: From October 3 to 10, China's styrene output increased by 3.32%, and pure benzene output increased by 0.70% [6] - Inventory: From October 3 to 10, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 2.23%, and the domestic factory inventory decreased by 4.63%. The national port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 14.15% [6] 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization Data - Pure benzene downstream: From October 3 to 10, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased by 2.37%, that of aniline increased by 1.12%, and that of phenol decreased by 0.34%. The capacity utilization rate of caprolactam remained unchanged [7] - Styrene downstream: From October 3 to 10, the capacity utilization rate of EPS decreased by 2.37%, ABS increased by 1.50%, and PS decreased by 1.70% [7] 3.3 Industry News - OPEC+ output in September increased by 400,000 barrels per day month - on - month, with Saudi Arabia contributing 320,000 barrels per day. Iraq's oil output in the Kurdistan region might further increase in October [8] - US refineries entered autumn maintenance, and the demand for refined oil decreased seasonally. Last week, US crude oil inventory increased by 3.7 million barrels more than expected [8] - Israel and Hamas reached a cease - fire agreement, easing the tension in the Middle East and reducing the geopolitical premium of crude oil [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [9][13][16]