9月信贷收支表点评：非银存款波动加剧，大小行投债思路分化

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the banking industry, indicating a potential recovery in the value of certain banks as they adapt to changing deposit dynamics [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant divergence in deposit strategies between large and small banks, with large banks experiencing a notable decline in non-bank deposits, while small banks maintain stability [5][8]. - The credit demand remains weak, but large banks are showing resilience with a higher loan growth rate compared to small banks, reflecting their ongoing scale requirements [5]. - The trend of converting fixed deposits to demand deposits continues, driven by lower interest rates and market volatility, impacting both individual and corporate deposits [8][19]. Summary by Sections Deposit Dynamics - Large banks' deposit growth rate was 7.25% in September, down by 0.96 percentage points month-on-month, while small banks saw a growth rate of 9.12%, down by 0.19 percentage points [4]. - The non-bank deposit volatility has increased in 2025, leading to a widening gap in the loan-to-deposit ratio for large banks, which reached -1.64% in September [5][15]. Credit Market - Large banks' loan growth rate was 8.88% in September, while small banks' growth was 5.46%, indicating a stronger performance from large banks [5]. - The bond market saw a stabilization effect from large banks' investment strategies, with a focus on short-duration bonds and interbank certificates of deposit [5][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks that are well-positioned to benefit from the evolving deposit landscape, particularly those with strong customer bases and stable dividend yields [6]. - Specific banks highlighted for potential investment include China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank, which are expected to benefit from the shift towards wealth management and deposit diversification [6].