平台公司刺激新能源市场，锂价关注能否借势而起

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the lithium carbonate futures market, including market data changes, supply - demand and inventory in the industrial chain, and provides price trend judgments. It notes that there are both bullish and bearish factors in the market, with supply increasing while demand is strong. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the next one to two weeks, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and downstream acceptance [31][32]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes: On October 16, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract rose 3.05% to 74,940 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened by 2,220 yuan/ton to - 2,040 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 5.61% to 178,000 lots, while trading volume increased by 19.38% to 269,000 lots [1]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain: On the supply side, the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable, and new production capacity was released, with the total lithium carbonate output expected to continue growing in October. On the demand side, the prices of ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate increased, and the cost transfer pressure grew. The retail sales of new energy vehicles from October 1 - 12 showed a slight year - on - year decline but a month - on - month increase. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks, and the spot market trading was inactive [2]. - Market Summary: Attention should be paid to whether the new energy market can form a positive influence under the rumor of the establishment of a polysilicon platform company. The supply - side capacity release and the demand - side peak - season stocking offset each other. Although the price increase of ternary materials and energy - storage demand drive the demand for lithium carbonate, the downstream's acceptance of high prices is decreasing, and electrolyte enterprises have not fully transferred the cost pressure [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 16, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 74,940 yuan/ton, up 3.05% from the previous day; the basis was - 2,040 yuan/ton, down 1,233.33%. The open interest of the main contract was 177,951 lots, down 5.61%, and the trading volume was 268,890 lots, up 19.38%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 72,900 yuan/ton, and the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates also remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose 1.35% to 75,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power ternary materials rose 2.33% to 131,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - Spot Market Quotes: On October 16, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,064 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, and the average price was 73,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, and the average price was 70,750 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated sharply, and the main contract was in the range of 72,800 - 75,000 yuan/ton. The downstream material factories were cautious, and the overall market trading was inactive. In October, the supply is expected to grow steadily, but the strong demand in the power and energy - storage fields will drive the market into a significant de - stocking stage, forming a stage of tight supply [6]. - Downstream Consumption: From October 1 - 12, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 367,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1% but a month - on - month increase of 1%. The retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 53.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 9.236 million units, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles from October 1 - 12 was 328,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1% but a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 60.2%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.775 million units, a year - on - year increase of 31% [7]. - Industry News: On October 16, the actual settlement discounts between precursor manufacturers and cathode material enterprises for quarterly orders or large - scale single orders increased significantly. On September 20, the electromechanical equipment of EVE Energy's Hungary base entered the site, marking the project's civil engineering entering a critical stage. The base is expected to be completed in 2026 and will create about 1,000 jobs. On September 25, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang was completed and put into operation [8][9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the main lithium carbonate futures and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [10][12][14][15][17][18][22][24].