有色商品日报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, closing slightly higher; domestic copper trended stronger with oscillations, and the spot import window remained closed. There are differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut pace. With the US government shutdown continuing and uncertainties in Sino - US trade, the copper market is cautious. Before substantial progress in Sino - US trade, the market may not offer a higher premium. However, the continuous rise in gold and silver prices and the return of the gold - silver ratio make copper prices eager to rise. Currently, copper prices may remain at a relatively high level due to the ongoing impact of the Indonesian mine accident, but the probability of prices exceeding the previous domestic historical high is low [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended stronger with oscillations. Alumina prices in the spot market declined, and the profit of alumina plants was further compressed. High - cost production capacity turned to losses and stopped production. After the rainy season ended, mine shipments resumed, and there is room for a decline in ore prices. Alumina is generally bearish but is starting to bottom out. The market re - evaluates the demand fulfillment in the second half of "Silver October", and aluminum prices maintain a relatively strong pattern. Whether they can rise further depends on further improvement in demand [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.53%, while SHFE nickel fell 0.48%. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories increased. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain shows stable nickel - iron prices, and stainless - steel prices are supported by nickel - iron. The social inventory of stainless steel increased significantly after the holiday. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw - material supply is tight, supporting prices. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is emerging, and nickel prices fluctuate widely, with caution needed regarding macro - level disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Analyzes the macro - situation including differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut stance, the US government shutdown, and Sino - US trade uncertainties. Also considers demand factors and the impact of the Indonesian mine accident on copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Covers the price trends of alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy in the futures market, as well as price changes in the spot market such as alumina, aluminum ingots, and aluminum rods. Discusses factors like alumina plant profits, ore shipments, and inventory changes affecting aluminum prices [1][2]. - Nickel: Mentions the price changes of LME and SHFE nickel, inventory changes, the situation of the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain, and the new - energy industry chain, and points out that nickel prices fluctuate widely and are affected by macro factors [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Compares prices such as flat - copper, scrap copper, and downstream products between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and domestic social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like LME0 - 3 premium and active - contract import profit and loss [3]. - Lead: Compares prices of lead products such as 1 lead and recycled lead, lead - concentrate prices, and processing fees between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME and SHFE and changes in other indicators like CIF提单 and active - contract import profit and loss [3]. - Aluminum: Compares prices of aluminum products such as无锡报价,南海报价, and aluminum alloy between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like CIF提单 and active - contract import profit and loss [4]. - Nickel: Compares prices of nickel products such as electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and nickel ore between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like CIF提单 and active - contract import profit and loss [4]. - Zinc: Compares prices of zinc products such as主力结算价, SMM 0 and 1 spot, and zinc alloy between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like LME0 - 3 premium and active - contract import profit and loss [6]. - Tin: Compares prices of tin products such as主力结算价, SMM现货, and tin concentrate between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME and SHFE and changes in other indicators like LME0 - 3 premium and active - contract import profit and loss [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Spot Premium: Provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10][11]. - 3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Provides charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - 3.3.3 LME Inventory: Provides charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - 3.3.4 SHFE Inventory: Provides charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - 3.3.5 Social Inventory: Provides charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - 3.3.6 Smelting Profit: Provides charts of smelting - related indicators such as copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - 展大鹏: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial - product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity - research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by multiple media. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [50]. - 王珩: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the dynamics of the new - energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients [50]. - 朱希: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. Focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, she tracks the dynamics of the new - energy industry chain and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients [51].