黑色商品日报-20251017

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a slight rebound. However, considering the approaching end of the peak demand season and pessimistic market expectations for future demand, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to remain in a weak consolidation state [1]. - Iron Ore: With both supply and demand showing negative factors, such as decreased global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments, reduced iron - making output, and increased port inventory, the price of iron ore is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term [1]. - Coking Coal: Affected by factors such as stable production at the supply end, rigid replenishment demand at the demand end, and high - level shock of iron - making output, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Coke: With the narrowing of coking enterprise profit margins and reduced supply, and high - level operation of blast furnaces at the demand end, the coke futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The price of manganese silicon futures has shown a weakening trend. With the approaching of the steel procurement price determination and the weakening of cost support, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The price of ferrosilicon futures has stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by factors such as production reduction and weak downstream demand, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [3]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Research Views - Steel: The closing price of rebar 2601 contract was 3049 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 18,200 lots in positions. The spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume recovered. This week, the national rebar production decreased by 22,400 tons to 2.0116 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand increased by 737,400 tons to 2.1975 million tons year - on - year [1]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 773.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 400,000 lots and an increase of 27,000 lots in positions. The market price of mainstream port spot varieties decreased. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments decreased, and the iron - making output decreased by 5,900 tons to 2.4095 million tons [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1185.5 yuan/ton, up 34.5 yuan/ton or 3% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 21,901 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal varieties increased, and the downstream had rigid replenishment demand [1]. - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton or 1.86% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 314 lots in positions. The spot price was stable. The profit margin of coking enterprises narrowed, and the supply decreased slightly [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The price of manganese silicon futures showed a weakening trend. The mainstream steel procurement in October decreased slightly, and the first inquiry price was 5750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last month. The cost support weakened slightly [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The price of ferrosilicon futures stopped falling and rebounded. An enterprise in Inner Mongolia reduced production, affecting the daily output by about 200 tons. The mainstream steel procurement quantity in October decreased by 195 tons [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 53.0, up 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil was - 14.0, down 3.0 [4]. - Basis: For example, the basis of rebar 01 contract was 141.0, down 15.0; the basis of iron ore 01 contract was 52.2, up 6.3 [4]. - Spot Price: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3190.0, unchanged; the spot price of PB powder was 778.0, up 3.0 [4]. - Profit and Spread: For example, the rebar futures profit was - 106.5, up 4.7; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 170.0, down 8.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][14]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts show the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][20][22]. - Inter - period Contract Spread: Charts show the spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][29][30][31][34][35]. - Inter - variety Contract Spread: Charts show the spreads between different varieties such as hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, coking coal and iron ore, coking coal and coke, and manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [40][42][44]. - Rebar Profit: Charts show the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar [45][49]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [51]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal [51]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [52].