光大期货软商品日报-20251017

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.03% to 63.78 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.49% to 13,320 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 5,766 lots to 586,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,420 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. In the international market, the overall driving force of U.S. cotton is limited recently, and the data is still in a relatively vacuum period due to the U.S. government shutdown. In the short term, U.S. cotton prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock. In the domestic market, the focus is on new cotton. The supply pressure has increased during the new cotton listing period, and the new cotton volume this year has reached a 10 - year high with an earlier listing progress. There is a short - term mismatch between supply and demand, but the supply - demand pattern of cotton in China, the U.S., and the world has narrowed compared to the previous year. After the supply pressure eases, cotton prices may improve. Overall, the upward pressure on Zhengzhou cotton remains in the short term [1]. - For sugar, in the second half of September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil reached 3.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%. The sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was 51.17%, lower than the 53.49% in the first half of September. The cumulative sugar production as of September reached 33.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. Although the cumulative production has continued to rise year - on - year, the decline in the sugar - making ratio has temporarily alleviated market concerns, but the futures price rebound is weak due to over - production. In the domestic market, the spot price has been continuously lowered, and the cost support has gradually emerged after the futures price fell to 5,400 yuan per ton. Before the raw sugar makes a new breakthrough, the domestic market is expected to fluctuate, waiting for the import data in September and the estimated production of the new sugar - crushing season [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Cotton: ICE U.S. cotton and CF601 prices changed on Thursday. The position of the main contract increased. The international market has limited driving force and data vacuum. The domestic new cotton supply pressure is high in the short term, but the annual supply - demand pattern has narrowed. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton has upward pressure [1]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production data shows an increase in production and a decline in the sugar - making ratio. The domestic spot price is lowered, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 55, up 5; the main contract basis was 1344, down 60. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,510 yuan per ton, down 3, and the national average was 14,664 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 35, up 6; the main contract basis was 372, down 15. The spot price in Nanning was 5,790 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. 3. Market Information - Cotton: On October 16, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 49 to 2,724, with 112 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load and inventory, and short - fiber cloth comprehensive load and inventory data were also provided [3]. - Sugar: On October 16, the spot price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,790 yuan per ton, and in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5,780 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,438, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - Cotton: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China cotton price index of the cotton main contract over different time periods [6][8][9][10][11][12]. - Sugar: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of the sugar main contract over different time periods [14][15][17]