甲醇日报：继续关注伊朗船货物流进展-20251017

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market focus remains on the issue of Iranian methanol vessels. Port storage enterprises are reluctant to receive Iranian cargoes due to sanctions risks, which supports the port market. However, the situation of the potential restart of negotiations between the US and Iran needs further attention. - Inland coal - based methanol production capacity utilization has rebounded, and inland inventories are gradually increasing from a low level. Traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE have weakened, reducing support for the port market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Inland: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 660 yuan/ton (unchanged). Inland methanol prices in different regions show different trends. Inner Mongolia's northern line is 2065 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its basis is 346 yuan/ton (-21). Inner Mongolia's southern line is 2050 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2318 yuan/ton (-3), Henan is 2165 yuan/ton (-10), and Hebei is 2210 yuan/ton (-25). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 359,900 tons (+20,500), and the northwest factory inventory is 223,000 tons (+19,000). The inland factory's pending orders are 228,910 tons (+113,670), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 136,730 tons (+73,530) [1]. - Port: Taicang methanol is 2297 yuan/ton (-20), its basis is -22 yuan/ton (-41), CFR China is 267 US dollars/ton (+6), and the East China import price difference is -20 yuan/ton (-21). Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,491,360 tons (-51,870), with Jiangsu port inventory at 773,000 tons (-20,000), Zhejiang port inventory at 224,000 tons (-63,500), and Guangdong port inventory at 323,000 tons (+23,000). The downstream MTO operating rate is 92.39% (unchanged) [2]. - Regional Price Difference: The price differences between different regions also show different changes. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is -55 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference is -318 yuan/ton (-20) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Port: On Thursday, port inventories rebounded again. The market's focus is on Iranian methanol vessels. Due to sanctions risks, port storage enterprises are less willing to receive Iranian cargoes, which supports the port market. The willingness of Chinese storage enterprises to receive Iranian methanol vessels remains low, leading to a decrease in shipments from some Iranian methanol enterprises, and attention should be paid to their factory inventory accumulation [3]. - Inland: The coal - based methanol production capacity utilization has rebounded, and inland inventories are increasing from a low level. The operating rates of traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE have weakened, reducing support for the port market [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Single - side: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 at low levels. - Inter - variety: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 at high levels [4].