贵金属逻辑框架再审视：金银在交易什么？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the end of August, precious metals such as gold and silver have broken through the 4 - month shock range and continued to rise. The bull market pattern of precious metals is expected to continue. In the long - term, the return of gold's monetary attribute under the trend of anti - globalization will push up the price center. In the medium - term, the expectation of double easing of US monetary and fiscal policies is the main driver, and events related to geopolitical, financial market or other tail risks may amplify market fluctuations. In the short - term, attention should be paid to events such as the US government shutdown and Sino - US negotiations. If there are turning points, precious metal prices may adjust, but investors can still adopt a low - buying strategy [2][4][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metal Market Trading Main Lines - In 2025, the precious metal market trading mainly revolved around Trump's trade and fiscal policies and the Fed's monetary policy, with occasional geopolitical fluctuations and continuous central bank gold purchases. Before August, it was mainly about Trump's trade policy, and the risk - aversion sentiment first rose and then declined. After August 7, when the reciprocal tariffs took effect, the market shifted to trading based on US monetary policy and the expectation of double easing [8]. - The recent rise in precious metals started in late August, driven by multiple factors: Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Lisa Cook, the expectation of Fed rate cuts after the cooling of non - farm data and Powell's dovish speech, the rise of long - term government bond yields in major overseas economies, the release of upward momentum after the long - term shock of London gold in the range of $3450 - 3500, the concentration of risk events such as the US government shutdown and Sino - US trade friction escalation in October, and the increase in silver ETF investment demand and Indian seasonal demand leading to a shortage of silver supply [8][11]. II. Re - examination of Precious Metal Trading Logic (1) Gold - Analysis Framework Change: Before 2022, the analysis framework of gold mainly focused on its financial attribute, with a strong negative correlation with the US real yield. Since 2022, this negative correlation has weakened, and the significant increase in central bank gold purchases is considered the most important factor supporting the rise of the gold price center [16]. - New Influencing Factors: Since September 2024, gold ETF investment has turned into net inflows, reflecting the market's expectation of future liquidity easing and the shift of asset allocation to gold. Geopolitical factors have a more long - term impact on gold prices. New gold trading centers are emerging, such as Dubai and China, and digital currencies are reshaping the gold narrative [17][18][19]. - Overseas Economies' Debt Issues: The US federal government debt has exceeded $37 trillion, accounting for about 127% of GDP in 2024. Other major overseas economies such as Japan, France, the UK, and Germany also face various fiscal problems, which may lead central banks to continue increasing their gold reserves [20][28]. - US Monetary Policy Path: The market is concerned about the Fed's independence and its judgment on the US economic fundamentals and financial market liquidity. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. If the Fed's independence is interfered with, it may lead to long - term inflation in the US, which is beneficial to gold. The market expects the Fed to stop shrinking its balance sheet soon due to the cooling of the labor market and inflation [31][33][36]. (2) Silver - Price Characteristics: Silver has both financial and industrial attributes, and its price is driven by gold in a liquidity - abundant environment. However, it does not have a monetary attribute, and the gold - silver ratio has risen in the past two years [41]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Since 2021, silver has faced a supply shortage for five consecutive years. The recent "short squeeze" in the London silver market was caused by factors such as the increase in silver ETF investment demand and Indian seasonal demand. Although the current shortage has shown signs of relief, the medium - and long - term bullish factors remain unchanged [45][53]. III. Conclusion - The main logic framework of precious metals has not changed significantly in the medium - and long - term, and the bull market pattern will continue. In the short - term, attention should be paid to events such as the US government shutdown and Sino - US negotiations. Any adjustment in precious metal prices can be regarded as an opportunity to enter or increase positions [7][55].