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股指期货将震荡整理,黄金、白银期货价格再创新高,多晶硅期货将偏强震荡,燃料油期货将震荡偏弱,玻璃、纯碱、PTA、甲醇、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-17 07:01

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, and agricultural product futures. It combines macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis to predict the price trends, support and resistance levels of different futures contracts on October 17, 2025, and also gives the market performance on October 16, 2025. Additionally, it presents relevant macro - news and commodity - related information that may impact the futures markets [2][7][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Forecast - Stock Index Futures: On October 17, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate. For example, IF2512 has resistance at 4609 and 4632 points, and support at 4549 and 4498 points. In October 2025, it is likely to have a weak and wide - range oscillation [2][16]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The ten - year T2512 and thirty - year TL2512 are likely to have a strong - biased oscillation on October 17. T2512 has resistance at 108.28 and 108.32 yuan, and support at 107.95 and 107.83 yuan; TL2512 has resistance at 115.4 and 115.9 yuan, and support at 114.3 and 113.8 yuan [2][35][39]. - Precious Metal Futures: Gold (AU2512) and silver (AG2512) futures are likely to have a strong - biased oscillation on October 17 and may reach new highs. In October 2025, they are also expected to have a strong - biased oscillation and break through resistance levels [41][43][51]. - Base Metal Futures: Copper (CU2512) is likely to have a wide - range oscillation on October 17; aluminum (AL2512) and polycrystalline silicon (PS2511) are likely to have a strong - biased oscillation; alumina (AO2601) is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation and break through resistance levels; while glass, soda ash, and fuel oil are likely to have a weak - biased oscillation [3][54][61]. - Agricultural Product Futures: PTA, methanol, and soybean meal are likely to have a weak - biased oscillation on October 17; PVC and palm oil are likely to have a strong - biased oscillation [6][100][106]. Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference, responding to multiple hot issues such as Sino - US economic and trade talks, rare - earth export control, and the intervention of the Dutch authorities in Chinese enterprises. It also plans to introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade [7]. - The US Treasury Secretary mentioned the relationship between China's rare - earth export control and the extension of tariff exemptions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated China's stance [7]. - The US President Trump had a phone call with the Russian President Putin, discussing the Ukraine conflict and future trade issues between the US and Russia [8]. - The US Treasury Department announced that the deficit in fiscal year 2025 was $1.78 trillion, a 2% decrease from fiscal year 2024. Net customs revenue reached $195 billion [8]. - Fed officials have different views on the pace of interest - rate cuts [8]. Commodity Futures - related Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees and position thresholds of some options contracts from November 10 [9]. - On October 16, international precious - metal futures generally rose, while crude - oil futures fell. Base metals in London showed a mixed performance [9][10]. - The Russian President Putin said that Russia's oil production in 2025 is expected to be 510 million tons, a 1% decrease from last year. Global daily oil demand is expected to reach 104.5 million barrels, an increase of more than 1 million barrels from last year [10]. - The CEO of Saudi Aramco warned of a future supply shortage in the global oil industry and called for increased investment in exploration and production [11].