LPG数据日报-20251017

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The LPG market is oscillating weakly, and its low valuation is expected to be restored [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content International Market - The previous working day's CP converted RMB propane was around 3,512.916 yuan/ton, and butane was around 3,370.98 yuan/ton. Due to tight butane supply and demand, the price difference between CP propane and butane has disappeared, so the butane price trend is stronger than that of propane [4]. - Affected by tariff policies, the international market prices fluctuated widely, and the average price ended up falling. The market's concern has risen again, and Chinese importers generally turned to purchasing US resources, causing the discount of non-US resources to China to remain high. As the external market prices fell to relatively low levels, it attracted buyers. Coupled with the strong demand from Sinopec in China, it promoted the recovery of market buying interest and the prices stabilized and rebounded [4]. East China Region - The average price of the civil gas market remained stable at 4,570 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. This week, the East China civil gas market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a general overall atmosphere. In the later part of the week, due to the increase in Shandong's supply and the impact of warehouse receipts, the prices continued to decline, and the negative effects were transmitted southward. Jiangsu's shipments became sluggish, and the prices fell again [4]. - In terms of imported gas, there were limited vessel arrivals at the docks this week, and importers were clearly willing to support the market. The prices were high in the early stage, but as the Shandong prices fell, it affected the shipments at Jiangsu docks. With the decline of domestic gas prices widening the price difference, the imported gas prices showed signs of loosening in the later part of the week. By Thursday, the imported propane price was around 4,650 yuan/ton, and the imported proportional gas price in Zhejiang was between 4,500 - 4,550 yuan/ton [4]. South China Region - The average price of the civil gas market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4,570 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a decline of -0.44%. This week, the price center of the South China civil gas market continued to decline. The price of etherified C4 increased at low prices and fell at high prices, and the final average price decreased slightly [4]. - Affected by the decline of both international oil prices and the LPG external market, the market's bearish sentiment increased, and the overall price center moved down. Although the arrival discount remained high and importers were strongly willing to support the prices, the downstream demand continued to be weak. In terms of industrial gas, due to the improvement in demand in the Zhanjiang area, the inventory pressure was relieved, and the prices rebounded at low prices. In the Guangxi area, there was an expectation of subsequent supply increase, and the prices declined from high levels. The prices in the Guangzhou area also decreased. After each unit adjusted the prices according to its own situation, the regional price difference narrowed, and currently, production and sales were basically balanced [4]. Shandong Region - The average price of the civil gas market remained stable at 4,450 yuan/ton; in terms of etherified C4, the market average price decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 4,370 yuan/ton, a decline of -0.64% [4]. - This week, the Shandong civil gas market first remained stable and then declined, and the price center clearly moved down. At the beginning of the week, although the warehouse receipt resources were gradually flowing out, compared with the refinery resources, the prices were not significantly impacted, and it relied on the strong support of downstream chemical demand, showing a stable trend. However, as the unexpected increase in the refinery's external supply in the province affected the market, the supply of civil gas resources in the market gradually increased, while the downstream demand did not improve further. The situation of oversupply in the market became more prominent. In the middle and later stages, the market was under pressure and the prices decreased. The low level of the international LPG market increased the market's wait-and-see sentiment. At the end of the week, the market was competing to sell goods, and the trading atmosphere improved limitedly under the sentiment of buying on rising and not on falling. The prices fell to a new low for the year [4]. Futures Market - The closing price of the domestic futures market's main contract increased by 120 yuan/ton to 4,268 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a rise of 2.89%. The settlement price increased by 58 yuan/ton to 4,199 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.40%. The open interest increased by 2,324 lots to 170,702 lots, a rise of 1.38% [4]. - The price differences between different contract months and varieties also showed different degrees of changes, such as the PG2511 - PG2512 price difference increased by 1 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.78%; the PG2511 - PG2601 price difference increased by 24 yuan/ton to 237 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.27% [4].