Economic Growth Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is concluding this year, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" expected to maintain an annual growth target around 5%[1] - The average GDP growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" was 5.5%, and if 5% is achieved in 2025, the average growth for this period will be 5.4%[1] - The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" was 87%, down from 95.7% in the "13th Five-Year Plan" period[2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Final consumption contributed 59.6% to economic growth, up from 49% in the "13th Five-Year Plan" period[2] - Capital formation's contribution was 27.4%, down from 46.7% in the previous plan[2] - To expand consumption, stable employment and income growth are essential, alongside improvements in social security systems[2] Investment and Innovation - There is significant room for investment as China's per capita capital stock remains low compared to developed economies[3] - The focus during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will be on infrastructure, public safety, and technology innovation[3] - Enhancing total factor productivity is crucial for achieving the targeted 5% economic growth, with technology innovation being a core driver[3] Environmental and Trade Policies - China aims to peak carbon emissions before 2030, with non-fossil energy consumption expected to reach 19.8% by 2024, exceeding the "14th Five-Year Plan" target of 20%[7] - The trade surplus as a percentage of GDP has increased during the "14th Five-Year Plan," and efforts will continue to balance imports and exports in the "15th Five-Year Plan"[7]
“十五五”规划前瞻:扩大内需
Western Securities·2025-10-17 07:25