铜日报:持续矛盾推升市场热情,铜价短期难见南向拐点-20251017
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-17 07:16
- Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term copper prices may remain strong around 85,000. The core drivers are supply contraction and macro - hedging demand. Supply - side production cuts in multiple mines intensify long - term shortage expectations, but demand - side declines in the refined copper rod operating rate and concerns about AI demand suppress price elasticity. Macroscopically, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may support prices through a weaker dollar, but market caution about the economic outlook persists [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On October 16, the SHFE copper price closed at 84,980 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day and 390 yuan lower than on October 10. The spot premium and discount weakened overall. The discount of premium copper narrowed to 100 yuan/ton, the discount of flat - copper dropped to 40 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper widened to - 35 yuan/ton, indicating weak spot demand. The LME 0 - 3 month premium fell from 54.87 dollars/ton to 27.94 dollars/ton, showing a contraction in overseas spot premiums [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: The LME copper position decreased by 2,953 lots to 320,194 lots on October 15, and market trading activity cooled. Domestic SHFE inventories declined for two consecutive weeks, with a 900 - ton decrease on October 16 to 137,000 tons, but COMEX inventories increased slightly by 955 short tons to 343,000 short tons [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: Mine - end disturbances intensified. In August, the output of the El Teniente copper mine under Chile's Codelco decreased by 25% year - on - year to 93,400 tons, and the output of the Collahuasi mine decreased by 27%. Teck Resources lowered the 2025 output forecast of the Quebrada Blanca mine to 170,000 - 190,000 tons. Freeport's Grasberg copper mine declared force majeure due to a mudslide, and the 2026 output may be cut by 35%. Although BHP plans to restart four copper mines in the US, short - term new production capacity is limited, and the tailings re - processing cycle is long [2]. - Demand Side: Downstream demand is under significant pressure. The expected operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in October will drop by 6.95 percentage points to 63.35% compared to the previous month, mainly due to high copper prices suppressing提货意愿 and post - holiday finished product inventory backlogs. Demand in traditional fields such as power and construction is flat, and concerns about the slowdown of AI - related demand are rising, further suppressing market sentiment [2]. - Inventory Side: Global visible inventories are differentiated. LME inventories decreased by 125 tons on October 16 to 44,400 tons but are still at a high level this year. SHFE inventories have been destocked for two consecutive weeks to 137,000 tons, while COMEX inventories have slightly accumulated, reflecting weak overseas demand [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | 2025 - 10 - 16 | 2025 - 10 - 15 | 2025 - 10 - 10 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM:1 Copper | 85,450 | 85,590 | 86,070 | - 140 | - 0.16% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 100 | 130 | 100 | - 30 | - 23.08% | yuan/ton | | Flat - Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 40 | 70 | 20 | - 30 | - 42.86% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 35 | 0 | - 45 | - 35 | - | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - | 28 | 55 | - | - | dollars/ton | | SHFE Price | 84,980 | 85,370 | 85,320 | - 390 | - 0.46% | yuan/ton | | LME Price | - | 10,576 | 10,585 | - | - | dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 44,406 | 44,531 | 36,295 | - 125 | - 0.28% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 137,450 | 138,350 | 138,800 | - 900 | - 0.65% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | - | 343,235 | 342,280 | - | - | short tons | [5] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On October 16, BHP is considering reopening four long - closed copper mines in Arizona, USA. The potential restart plan will focus on the Globe–Miami area, and BHP also plans to re - process tailings from closed operations there [6]. - On October 16, Yukon Metals detected multiple stacked skarn zones containing copper - gold mineralization in the first drill hole of its Birch copper - gold project [6]. - On October 16, Japan, Spain, and South Korea jointly stated that the processing fees (TC/RC) for copper concentrates are continuously falling, seriously eroding the profitability of smelters [6]. - On October 16, the output of the Collahuasi mine, a joint venture between Anglo American and Glencore, also decreased by 27%. Both companies lowered their 2025 - 2026 production targets. Meanwhile, Teck Resources lowered its 2025 output forecast for the Quebrada Blanca mine to 170,000 - 190,000 tons, far lower than the previous guidance [6]. - On October 16, after a fatal accident at the El Teniente copper mine, the largest underground copper mine of state - owned miner Codelco in Chile, the output in August decreased by 25% year - on - year, falling to the lowest level in 20 years at 93,400 tons [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper position situation, LME copper various net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [7][11][12][14][16][19][21][25][26][29].