多空并存，锌价区间整理

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the fourth quarter, macro - risks still exist. The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc remain weak. High production, low consumption, and high inventory suppress the upside space of zinc prices. The LME zinc inventory has reached an absolute low, and the back structure is deepening, with high structural risks and relatively strong price trends. The Shanghai - London ratio continues to weaken, the export window for zinc ingots opens, and the slightly tightened pattern of the zinc ore end supports the downside of zinc prices. It is expected that without sudden events in the short term, Shanghai zinc will maintain a range - bound pattern, with an operating range of 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [2][3] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Zinc Market Review - In the third quarter, zinc prices briefly rose and then fell, with the center of gravity slightly shifting down. By September 30, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,760 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the end of June and 12.99% from the same period last year; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 21,825 yuan/ton, down 2.98% from the end of June and 13.12% from the same period last year; the closing price of LME 3 - month zinc (electronic disk) was 2,956.5 US dollars/ton, up 7.86% from the end of June and down 3.93% from the same period last year. [10][11] 2. Zinc Concentrate - As of September 29, the average price of domestic zinc concentrate was 16,598 yuan/ton, down 3.14% from the end of June and 23.01% from the same period last year; the average price of imported zinc concentrate was 18,680.64 yuan/ton, up 4.41% from the end of June and down 11.73% from the same period last year. - In July 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0762 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.28%. Overseas mines had both production increases and decreases, mainly with increments. Domestic zinc mines mainly increased production, but the output in September was expected to decline to about 310,000 tons. From January to August, the cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 3.5027 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 43.06%. By the end of September, the raw material inventory of refined zinc smelters was at a relatively high historical level. [28][30][34] 3. Supply Side (1) Profit - The mine end maintained a loose pattern. From July to August, the TC of domestic and imported zinc concentrates increased simultaneously, and smelter profits continued to rise. In September, the TC of domestic zinc concentrate declined, while that of imported zinc concentrate continued to increase. After considering by - product revenues, smelter profits were still optimistic. [64] (2) Production - In July, the global refined zinc output was 1.1993 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.70%. In the third quarter, the domestic zinc ingot output increased significantly, with a quarterly output of 1.8291 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.99%. The import window for refined zinc remained closed. It is expected that the domestic monthly output will remain at about 600,000 tons in the fourth quarter, and the overseas supply will also remain loose. [68][69][70] 4. Demand Side (1) Downstream - Galvanizing: In July, the start - up rate declined due to high - temperature weather and the off - season of home appliances. In August, it was affected by holidays and environmental protection. In September, it first rose and then fell. Enterprises mainly replenished stocks at low prices. - Die - casting zinc alloy: In July, it was in the off - season. In August, enterprises reduced production at the beginning and replenished stocks at the end. In September, consumption improved slightly, and enterprises also replenished stocks at low prices. - Zinc oxide: In July, it was in the off - season, and the start - up rate and weekly output declined. In August, it was affected by events and zinc price fluctuations, and the raw material inventory increased. [80][84][86] (2) Terminal - In the third quarter, it was the traditional consumption off - season. In September, consumption improved slightly. In the real estate sector, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of commercial housing all declined as of the end of August. In the infrastructure sector, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 5.42% as of the end of August, with a slowdown in growth. In the automotive sector, in August 2025, the production and sales increased year - on - year. [94]