碳酸锂日评：低位震荡-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On October 16, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards. The current supply and demand are both strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not large, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakened, the downstream inventory preparation has reached its peak, and the demand peak may be approaching. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate at a low level. The situation after Jiangxi's mining end submits the production report needs to be observed. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the short - term range [1] Summary According to Related Content Futures Market - On October 16, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 73,820 yuan/ton, 74,940 yuan/ton, 75,080 yuan/ton, and 75,080 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,160 yuan/ton, 2,220 yuan/ton, 2,140 yuan/ton, and 2,140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 268,890 lots (+43,652), and the open interest was 177,951 lots (-10,572). The basis changed from premium to discount [1] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) remained at 73,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) remained at 70,750 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Raw Material Market - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased to 829 US dollars/ton (+1), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also showed an upward trend [1] Downstream Product Market - The average prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium increased, while the average prices of some products such as lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 30,456 tons (-2,620). The social inventory decreased, with smelters and downstream reducing inventory, while other sectors increased inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 132,658 tons (-2,143) [1] Industry News - At the 5th Energy Storage Safety Seminar, the "Self - Practice Guide for Container Lithium - Battery Energy Storage Systems" was released, which is the first time the industry has transformed the consensus into systematic practical norms [1] Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the lithium carbonate production increased last week, and the production is expected to increase in October. In terms of demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, the production of power batteries increased last week, the production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is expected to increase in October, the production and sales growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down in September, the 3C shipment volume was average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in October [1]