商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251017

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated October 17, 2025, covering various metals including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver's spot contradictions are easing, leading to a price increase followed by a decline. Copper's spot premium supports its price, zinc shows internal and external differentiation, and lead's overseas inventory reduction limits price drops. Tin's price is influenced by macro factors, and aluminum has upward potential. Alumina shows a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices are oscillating at a low level due to bearish macro sentiment, and stainless steel prices are pressured by both macro and real - world factors, with cost providing a downside limit [2]. Summary by Metal Gold - Price and Trading Volume: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512, Gold T+D, Comex Gold 2512, and London Gold Spot all increased, with night - time prices also rising. Trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Comex Gold 2512 increased, while Shanghai Gold 2512's open interest decreased, and Comex Gold 2512's increased. - ETF and Inventory: SPDR Gold ETF's open interest increased, and inventories of Shanghai Gold and Comex Gold changed, with Shanghai Gold's inventory rising and Comex Gold's falling. - Trend Strength: Gold's trend strength is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [4]. Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2512, Silver T+D, Comex Silver 2512, and London Silver Spot rose, with night - time prices also increasing. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2512 increased, and its open interest remained unchanged. - ETF and Inventory: SLV Silver ETF's open interest remained unchanged, and inventories of Shanghai Silver and Comex Silver decreased. - Trend Strength: Silver's trend strength is 1, suggesting a moderately bullish view [4]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased slightly, while the LME Copper 3M electronic disk price increased. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased, and its open interest increased. - Inventory and Premium: Shanghai Copper's inventory decreased, and LME Copper's inventory also declined. The LME Copper premium decreased significantly. - Trend Strength: Copper's trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and LME Zinc 3M electronic disk decreased slightly. The trading volumes of both decreased, and the open interest of Shanghai Zinc decreased while that of LME Zinc increased. - Premium and Inventory: Shanghai 0 zinc's premium changed, and LME CASH - 3M premium increased. Shanghai Zinc's inventory increased, and LME Zinc's inventory decreased. - Trend Strength: Zinc's trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral view [11]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased slightly, while the LME Lead 3M electronic disk price increased. The trading volumes of both decreased, and the open interest of Shanghai Lead decreased while that of LME Lead increased. - Premium and Inventory: Shanghai 1 lead's premium decreased, and LME CASH - 3M premium decreased. LME Lead's inventory decreased. - Trend Strength: Lead's trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased slightly, while the LME Tin 3M electronic disk price increased. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased, and its open interest decreased. - Inventory and Premium: Shanghai Tin's inventory decreased, and the LME Tin premium changed slightly. - Trend Strength: Tin's trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral view [17]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, Shanghai Alumina main contract, and aluminum alloy main contract showed different trends. Trading volumes and open interests also changed accordingly. - Inventory and Premium: LME Aluminum's注销仓单占比 and various premiums changed. - Trend Strength: The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating neutral outlooks [20]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract changed. The trading volumes of both showed different trends. - Industry - related Data: Key prices and spreads in the nickel and stainless - steel industries changed. - Trend Strength: The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, suggesting neutral views [22].