国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily outlooks and analysis for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has a specific trend judgment, such as gold continuing to reach new highs, silver experiencing a pull - back after a spike, and many commodities showing wide - range oscillations [2][5]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to continue reaching new highs, with positive price trends driven by factors like geopolitical events and market sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [2][6][8]. - Silver: After the spot contradiction eases, the price is expected to pull back after a spike, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][6][8]. Base Metals - Copper: Spot premiums support prices. Despite a slight decline in the futures price, the overall price is expected to be stable. The trend intensity is 0 [2][10][12]. - Zinc: There is an internal - external differentiation. The trend intensity is 0 [2][13]. - Lead: The reduction of overseas inventories limits price declines. The trend intensity is 0 [2][16][17]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend intensity is 0 [2][19][21]. - Aluminum: It has upward potential. Alumina shows a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [2][22][24]. - Nickel: Macro - sentiment turns bearish, and nickel prices oscillate at a low level. Stainless steel is pressured by both macro and real - world factors, with its downward movement limited by cost. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [2][25][27]. Energy and Chemicals - LPG: Due to supply shortage expectations, prices have risen significantly [2][5]. - Propylene: Cost supports a rebound, but supply - demand pressure remains [2][5]. - PVC: The trend is weak [2][5]. - Fuel Oil: It oscillates in a narrow range, and the short - term weakness persists. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil [2][5]. - PTA and p - Xylene: Both are expected to be weak in the medium term. MEG is recommended for a 1 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage [2][5][57]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Tax increases support B50, and attention should be paid to the lower - bound support [2][5]. - Soybean Oil: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations [2][5]. - Corn: It has rebounded [2][5]. - Sugar: The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased year - on - year [2][5]. - Cotton: It has a slight rebound [2][5]. - Eggs: They oscillate weakly [2][5]. - Hogs: Supply is postponed, and the price center continues to decline [2][5]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [2][5]. Other Commodities - Iron Ore: It oscillates in a wide range, with the trend intensity of 0 [2][36][37]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: Both oscillate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [2][39][40]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Cost provides bottom - support, and they oscillate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [2][44][47]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Expectations fluctuate, and they oscillate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [2][49][51]. - Logs: They oscillate repeatedly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][52][56]. - Carbonate Lithium: Inventory reduction accelerates, and the number of warrants continues to decrease, resulting in a strong - side oscillation. The trend intensity is 1 [2][28][30]. - Industrial Silicon: It maintains a range - bound oscillation pattern, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][31][34]. - Polysilicon: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][32][34].