Report Information - Report Title: Zheng Sugar Weakens Again, Supply Pressure is High - Guoxin Futures Sugar Weekly Report - Report Date: October 17, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Domestic market: Zheng sugar followed the external market down significantly, breaking below the support around 5,400 yuan/ton. Although it showed signs of stabilization later in the week, domestic sugar sales are behind year-on-year, and downstream purchasing willingness is low. New season beet sugar production may be slightly lower, and cane area output may also decline due to typhoons. Import data is expected to remain high but may be lower than expected. Zheng sugar has support at 5,400 yuan/ton, but the rebound space is limited under fundamental pressure [57]. - International market: Higher-than-expected supply from Brazil and a bumper harvest in India have led to early digestion of supply pressure, causing ICE sugar prices to break below the support around 15.5 cents/pound. However, prices rebounded quickly and returned above 15.5 cents/pound. Despite strong Brazilian production data, the market did not continue to fall, mainly due to the decline in the sugar - making ratio. New negative factors are needed to break below 15 cents/pound [57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures prices: Zheng sugar broke through support and then fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. ICE sugar futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 1.55% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - No specific analysis text is provided, only data sources are mentioned [11][12]. 3.1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - No specific analysis text is provided, only data sources are mentioned [17][18]. 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In August, sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar March contract price of 16 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,477 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,688 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota cost is 4,421 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,615 yuan/ton [22]. 3.1.5 Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the industrial inventory in August was about 1.16 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons compared to the same period last year [25]. 3.1.6 ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zheng sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,438, a decrease of 460 from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,438, and the valid forecast was 0 [33]. 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of September, the cumulative crushing volume was 490 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.99%, and the sugar production was 33.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84% [37]. 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 52.68%, compared to 48.84% in the same period last year [42]. 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in September were 3.2458 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3% [48]. 3.1.10 International Main Producing Region Weather - In Brazil, there was abundant rainfall in the main producing areas, which was not conducive to sugarcane crushing. In India, precipitation decreased significantly [54]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestic market: Zheng sugar may continue to be under pressure from fundamentals, with limited rebound space. Although there is support at 5,400 yuan/ton, the overall situation is not optimistic. - International market: ICE sugar prices have shown some resilience after breaking support, and new negative factors are needed to drive prices lower [57].
郑糖再度走弱，供应压力较大
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-17 08:29