吉林玉米即将上市，盘面底部震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US corn is expected to continue to see a downward adjustment in yield, but the production is at a high level. The US corn has been oscillating around 420 cents per bushel this week, with strong support at 400 cents per bushel for the December contract. The market focus has shifted to Jilin corn, and there is still expected to be selling pressure when Jilin corn enters the market. The selling pressure of Northeast corn has eased in the short - term, and the corn spot may rebound slightly, but the rebound height is limited. The market expects the low point of the corn price at the northern port to be around 2050 yuan per ton. The corn futures contract 01 is expected to be in bottom - range oscillation, while the expectation for contract 05 remains strong [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream demand is still weak, but提货量 (pick - up volume) has increased, and the starch inventory has risen to a historical high for the same period. As the corn spot price has declined, the starch spot price has also dropped. The profit of North China starch factories has expanded, and the operating rate of starch enterprises will continue to rise, but there is still room for the starch spot price to fall with the large - scale listing of new corn. The corn starch futures contract 01 is expected to follow the corn in bottom - range oscillation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Market Situation and Outlook: The US corn is in a state of bumper harvest, but the yield may continue to be adjusted downward. The December contract of US corn has strong support at 400 cents per bushel and is in short - term narrow - range oscillation. The current market selling pressure has weakened, and the spot has short - term rebound space. However, there will still be selling pressure in late October when Jilin corn enters the market, so the rebound space of the corn spot is limited. In the short - term, corn will continue to oscillate at the bottom. Contracts 01 and 05 of corn are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The market expects corn to be in short supply after the Chinese New Year, so the spread between contracts 1 and 5 will remain large [4]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Try to buy the December contract of US corn around 400 cents per bushel. Adopt a short - term bullish approach for contract 01 of corn and buy contract 05 of corn below 2200 yuan per ton [5]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [5]. - Options: Implement a cumulative purchase strategy for contract 05 of corn [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Market - Supply and Demand Tables: The USDA's September global and US corn supply - demand balance tables show that the expected yield of US corn has decreased slightly, while the expected yield of other major countries such as Argentina remains unchanged. The ending inventory in the global supply - demand table has decreased slightly, and in the US supply - demand table, the ending inventory has also decreased slightly [8]. - Position and Production: As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn has increased, and the ethanol production in the US has increased. The US corn is oscillating at the bottom, around 420 cents per bushel [17]. Domestic Market - Inventory and Consumption of Deep - processing Enterprises: As of October 16, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills has slightly decreased compared with the previous week and the same period last year. From October 8 - 15, 2025, the consumption of corn by 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises has increased compared with the previous week. As of September 17, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises has increased, but it is expected to decrease next week [21][22]. - Port Inventory: On October 10, the corn inventory at the four northern ports has increased compared with the previous week, and the throughput has also increased. In the Guangdong port, the domestic - trade corn inventory has decreased, while the foreign - trade inventory, imported sorghum, and imported barley inventories have increased, and the total grain inventory has increased [25]. - Starch Market: From October 9 - 15, the national corn processing volume and starch production have increased, and the operating rate has risen. The corn spot price in North China has decreased, the starch spot price has decreased, the by - product price has remained stable, and the profit in Shandong has turned profitable. The corn starch inventory has increased and is expected to continue to rise next week [28]. - Substitute Market: The wheat price in North China has remained basically stable at around 2460 yuan per ton. The spread between wheat and corn has widened, the corn prices in North China and Northeast China have declined, the spread between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the spread between North China corn and the 01 corn contract has decreased [36]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Livestock and Poultry Farming: From October 9 - 16, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs has decreased by 67 yuan per head compared with the previous week, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding has decreased by 51 yuan per head. From October 9 - 15, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers has slightly increased compared with the previous week, and the egg - laying hen breeding profit has decreased [40][46]. - Starch Downstream Consumption: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup and malt syrup has increased compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of corrugated paper and boxboard paper has also increased [49]. - Prices of Corn and Substitutes: The price of wheat in North China has remained stable, and the prices of corn and related products have shown certain fluctuations. The spreads between different corn contracts and between corn and starch contracts have also changed [36][58].