锰硅期货日报-20251017

Report Overview - Report Date: October 17, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily Report - Research Variety: Manganese Silicon - Research Analyst: An Zhiyuan 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - On October 16, the manganese silicon futures market showed an overall volatile pattern. In the short term, the manganese silicon futures will maintain a weak volatile pattern, mainly restricted by supply - demand contradictions and market sentiment. Weak steel mill demand and rising inventory pressure have led to a lack of upward momentum in the market. The decline in trading volume indicates insufficient market participation, and it is difficult to form a trending market in the short term. Attention can be paid to the results of steel tenders and the actual procurement situation of steel mills to judge whether the short - term price will rebound [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On October 16, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile upward trend. The daily session opened at 5,734 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 5,786 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 5,720 yuan/ton, a closing price of 5,754 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 5,758 yuan/ton. The closing price decreased by 12 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The full - day trading volume was 129,115 lots, and the open interest was 374,285 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Price - The prices of the 12 futures contracts showed a contango market pattern with near - term prices lower than far - term prices. The prices of each contract fluctuated differently throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety was 574,082 lots, a decrease of 978 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 increased by 1,983 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Related Market - On October 16, the overall volatility of the manganese silicon options market was relatively large. The open interest of the call options of the manganese silicon main contract was 34,191 contracts, the open interest of the put options was 30,235 contracts, and the open interest PCR was 0.884 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - On October 16, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 54 yuan/ton, which was wider than that of the previous day [7]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - On October 16, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 48,976, a decrease of 780 compared with the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - Mysteel surveyed 83 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 71.6% of the national surveyed production capacity): The average inventory of manganese ore in factories nationwide was 14.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 days. Among them, the average in Guangxi was 7.3 days (an increase of 0.3), in Guizhou was 11.3 days (an increase of 0.6), in Inner Mongolia was 19 days (a decrease of 0.3), in Ningxia was 15.3 days (a decrease of 0.3), in Shanxi was 9.7 days (an increase of 0.4), in Shaanxi was 8.7 days (unchanged), in Sichuan and Chongqing was 24.3 days (an increase of 0.5), and in Yunnan was 21.7 days (an increase of 1) [9][10]. 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - On October 16, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon showed a volatile upward trend and finally closed with a small positive line. Technically, the manganese silicon price formed a short - term support around 5,700 yuan/ton, but the upward pressure was obvious. In particular, the level of 5,800 yuan/ton was not effectively broken through, limiting the upward momentum [11].