日内有色走弱

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪铜: The Shanghai copper contract continued to decline with decreasing positions, dropping nearly 700 yuan/ton during the day. Due to strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, while non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. A recent decline in gold prices led to a significant drop in copper prices. Short - term caution is needed for a potential fall after a peak in gold prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 84,000 yuan mark [6]. - 沪铝: The Shanghai aluminum contract also declined with decreasing positions, falling nearly 100 yuan/ton during the day. With strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, and non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. Technically, the aluminum price faced significant pressure at the 21,000 yuan mark, and support at the 60 - day moving average should be monitored [7]. - 沪镍: The Shanghai nickel contract showed weak oscillations with little change in positions. Given strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, and non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. Nickel was relatively resistant to decline in the sector due to its weaker macro - attribute. Short - term attention should be paid to the low since late September [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: High copper prices still suppressed terminal demand, resulting in weak new orders. The operating rate of the enameled wire industry rebounded by 3.87 percentage points to 75.2% this week, and new orders increased by 6.96 percentage points but had not returned to normal levels [10]. - Aluminum: As of October 16, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $74.45/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average CIF prices of various types of bauxite from different regions remained stable compared to the previous trading day [11]. - Nickel: On October 17, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premiums and discounts and prices of different types of nickel (Jinchuan electrolytic nickel, Russian nickel, Norwegian nickel, and nickel beans) were provided [12]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: Charts related to copper included the copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16]. - Aluminum: Charts related to aluminum were the aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. - Nickel: Charts related to nickel covered the nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].