Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, and the volume and open interest contracted. The demand for rebar has improved, but its sustainability is questionable, the inventory reduction pressure is high, and the supply remains low. With cost support, the steel price is expected to continue the oscillatory bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.16%, the volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The high - supply pressure persists, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil is weak. With cost support, the price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.19%, the volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The supply of iron ore is increasing, the industry concerns remain, the demand downward pressure is emerging, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weakening, and the high - valued iron ore price will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to September 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 38.53 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%; the new order volume was 66.6 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%; and the order - holding volume as of the end of September was 242.24 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3%. China's three major shipbuilding indicators maintained global leadership [6]. - Starting from 00:00 on October 18, 2025, Sichuan Province will suspend the implementation of the 2025 automobile scrapping and replacement subsidy policies. The follow - up adjustment policies will be announced in a timely manner after being determined [7]. - On October 16, 2025, Australia launched the first anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sunset review investigations on precision steel pipes from China and South Korea at the request of domestic enterprises [8]. 2. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,170 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,110 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the national average price was 3,215 yuan, up 3 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,270 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,190 yuan, unchanged; and the national average price was 3,331 yuan, down 2 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,920 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan, unchanged [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 777 yuan, unchanged; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 807 yuan, unchanged. The Australian sea freight was 10.39 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the Brazilian sea freight was 23.84 yuan, up 0.23 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.43 yuan, down 0.25 yuan; the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 105.95 yuan, down 0.25 yuan [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar active contract was 3,037 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 854,671 lots, a decrease of 181,696 lots; the open interest was 2,004,317 lots, a decrease of 35,070 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract was 3,204 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.16%. The trading volume was 487,804 lots, a decrease of 153,898 lots; the open interest was 1,496,079 lots, an increase of 16,084 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore active contract was 771.0 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.19%. The trading volume was 271,218 lots, a decrease of 127,333 lots; the open interest was 545,426 lots, an increase of 9,848 lots [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel mill inventory), and steel mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability) [15][20][30]. 5.后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has changed. The production of construction steel mills is weakly stable, the weekly output has decreased, and the supply is in a continuous contraction state but the decline is slowing. The demand has recovered after the festival, but the high - frequency daily trading volume is low, and the demand weakness remains. With cost support, the steel price is expected to continue the oscillatory bottom - seeking trend [41]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The inventory is increasing, the production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is questionable. With cost support, the price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [41]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. The steel mill production is weakly stable, the terminal consumption of iron ore is declining, the supply is increasing, and the high - valued iron ore price will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [42].
钢材&铁矿石日报：供需格局偏弱，钢矿延续震荡-20251017
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-17 09:17