基本面利好不足，焦煤区间震荡：煤焦日报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coke: As of the week ending October 17, the combined daily average coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,700 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5900 tons. This week, the coke inventories of upstream and downstream industries decreased. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 572,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,500 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3944 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,800 tons. Overall, both supply and demand of coke decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side, and the overall industrial chain inventory decreased. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly lies in the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expected policy benefits [6][34]. - Coking Coal: As of the week ending October 17, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 779,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6000 tons. At the import end, since October 8, the Ganqimaodu Port has resumed traffic, and the daily number of passing vehicles has returned to around 1100 - 1300. At the demand end, the combined daily average coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,700 tons. In terms of inventory, downstream coking plants and steel mills actively purchased this week, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. As of the week ending October 17, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 9.9737 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 383,100 tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8832 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 71,900 tons. Overall, the fundamental support for coking coal is insufficient, but recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution effects have caused disturbances, driving the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a range - bound operation [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - China Shenhua: In September, China Shenhua's coal sales volume decreased by 1.6% year - on - year. The commercial coal output in September was 27.6 million tons, and the cumulative output in the first nine months was 250.9 million tons, with year - on - year increases of 0.7% and a decrease of 0.4% respectively. The coal sales volume was 36.3 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume in the first nine months was 316.5 million tons, with year - on - year decreases of 1.6% and 8.4% respectively [9]. - Online Auction of Coking Coal by Mongolia's Small TT Company: On October 17, Mongolia's Small TT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal A24, V33, S0.9, G73, Mt1.9 was $60.8 per ton, the same as the previous auction on October 7. All 204,800 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of $63.8 per ton (all prices are tax - exclusive). The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 180 days after payment, with the final supply date being April 15, 2026 [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Grade FOB) | 1,520 | 0.00% | 3.40% | - 10.06% | - 21.65% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,460 | 1.39% | 0.00% | - 9.88% | - 20.65% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,260 | - 1.56% | - 1.56% | 6.78% | - 20.25% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - Produced) | 1,540 | 1.32% | - 4.35% | 3.36% | - 16.76% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced) | 1,660 | 0.00% | - 2.92% | 8.50% | - 14.87% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,676.0 | 1.64 | 1,691.5 | 1,668.5 | 20,491 | - 1,474 | 40,735 | - 1,812 | | Coking Coal | | 1,179.0 | 1.46 | 1,194.5 | 1,172.0 | 869,924 | - 111,364 | 606,535 | - 17,216 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventory, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory over the years [15][16][18] - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts show the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants over the years [21][24][26] - Other Charts: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [28][29][32] 3.5后市研判 - Coke: The supply and demand of coke both decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side, and the overall industrial chain inventory decreased. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly lies in the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expected policy benefits [34] - Coking Coal: The fundamental support for coking coal is insufficient, but recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution effects have caused disturbances, driving the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a range - bound operation [35]