瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market was suppressed by a bearish sentiment, with rubber prices showing weak performance. The offer price of imported rubber first rose and then fell, and the trading atmosphere in the market was average. The futures market was generally weak, and the trading atmosphere in the domestic natural rubber market was rather dull. Downstream enterprises only maintained a small amount of rigid demand inquiries, and the follow - up of actual orders was insufficient [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, rainfall still affects the supply of rubber sap, but the purchase price remains stable due to the pressure on processing costs. In Hainan, the weather is good, and raw material output is increasing seasonally. The orders and profits of local processing plants have improved, and they continue to increase the purchase price of raw materials. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly decreased compared to before the holiday, with the bonded warehouse showing inventory accumulation and the general trade warehouse showing inventory reduction. In terms of demand, enterprises that had maintenance during the holiday have resumed production as planned, and the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has significantly increased. However, the overall market has not shown significant improvement, and some enterprises are still flexibly controlling production to manage inventory. It is expected that the operation of enterprise equipment will remain stable in the short term [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,450 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Market Review: The natural rubber market was bearish this week, with rubber prices weak. Imported rubber offers rose first and then fell, market trading was average, and downstream enterprises had limited demand [6]. - Market Outlook: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has less rubber sap supply due to rainfall, while Hainan has normal tapping and increasing raw material output. Qingdao Port's total inventory decreased slightly, with bonded warehouses accumulating and general trade warehouses reducing inventory. Demand has recovered, but the overall market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises are controlling production [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,500 - 15,200, and the nr2512 contract between 12,000 - 12,450 [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 4.05% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber fell by 1.09% [11]. - Position Analysis: No specific content provided in the summary about position changes. - Inter - period Spread: As of October 17, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 10, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was 50 [22]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of October 16, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 136,630 tons, a decrease of 7,760 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 40,119 tons, a decrease of 1,210 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of October 16, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - 20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis: As of October 16, the 20 - rubber basis was 886 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - Upstream: In Thailand, as of October 17, the price of field latex was 54.1 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 50.2 (-0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of October 14, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 14.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.9 US dollars/ton from last week. In China, as of October 16, the price of Yunnan rubber sap was 13,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 13,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [40][43]. - Import Volume: In August 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 520,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.1214 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [46]. - Inventory in Qingdao: As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 500 tons, a decrease of 0.11%. The bonded area inventory was 70,800 tons, an increase of 2.02%; the general trade inventory was 385,200 tons, a decrease of 0.49%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [50]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Tire Capacity Utilization Rate: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points [54]. - Tire Export Volume: In August 2025, China's tire export volume was 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, China's cumulative tire export volume was 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [57]. - Domestic Demand: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [60].