股指期货日报-20251017

Report Overview - Report Date: October 15, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Stock Index Futures - Research Analyst: Wu Yinqiu [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short term, stock index futures are likely to show a wide - range oscillation pattern. Although there are issues such as insufficient domestic effective demand and external tariff disturbances, strong policy - stability expectations and the inflow of funds into the stock market will support the medium - and long - term upward trend of the stock index [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Price: On October 15, 2025, the most active contract of CSI 300 stock index futures, IF2512, opened higher and closed higher, rising 1.54% throughout the day [2]. - Variety Price: The CSI 300 stock index futures opened 14.8 points higher today. The main contract IF2512 had the largest trading volume of 86,223 lots, with a trading amount of 117.387 billion yuan, and the position volume was 160,428 lots, a decrease of 2,013 lots from the previous trading day [4][5]. - Associated Market: The three major A - share indexes regained their upward momentum today. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered the 3,900 - point mark, rising 1.22%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2,072.9 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 503.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The U.S. dollar index closed down 0.21% at 99.056. The three major U.S. stock indexes showed mixed trends [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - The latest quote of the CSI 300 index spot was 4,606.29 points, up 67.23 points or 1.48% from the previous day. The daily basis difference with the futures main contract IF2512 was 29.89 points, with little change from the previous trading day. The spot index and the futures price showed a high degree of synchronization [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Macro Information: Domestically, in September 2025, the national consumer price index CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. On October 15, the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was reported at 7.0995, up 26 basis points from the previous trading day. Overseas, on the early morning of October 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at the possibility of an interest - rate cut this month and a potential halt to the balance - sheet reduction. Regarding tariffs, Sino - U.S. game intensified as China took counter - measures against 5 U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., and Trump threatened to terminate trade in vegetable oils and other commodities [10][11]. - Technical Analysis: The CSI 300 stock index futures opened higher and then fluctuated upward. On the daily - line level, it was still in a high - level wide - range oscillation phase, with the daily K - line under pressure near the upper track of the BOLL. The daily line was above the 20 - day moving average but was restricted by the 5 - day moving average. The upward channel converged, and short - term high - level oscillation risks should be noted [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Overnight U.S. stocks oscillated due to the increasing expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut and Sino - U.S. game news. With the approaching of the APEC meeting and the Fourth Plenary Session in October, the short - term operation difficulty increased. In the short term, the stock index is likely to oscillate widely, but in the medium and long term, it is expected to rise due to policy support and capital inflow [15].