玉米类市场周报：新季玉米上量增多，期价维持偏弱调整-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures are in a long - term bearish trend. The supply pressure of US corn is increasing with the harvest, and domestic new - season corn is in the peak listing period with weak demand, though the start of purchases by direct - subordinate warehouses and the expansion of rotation procurement by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation support market sentiment to some extent [8]. - Corn starch futures are also bearish. With the increase in new - season corn supply, the cost support for corn starch weakens. After the holiday, the industry's开机 rate has increased significantly, inventory has slightly increased, and the market demand is squeezed by substitutes [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Corn - Market Review: This week, corn futures adjusted at a low level. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2117 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from before the holiday [8]. - Market Outlook: Affected by the US government shutdown, the USDA did not release the crop progress report. Analysts expect about 29% of US corn to be harvested. As the US corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will increase, and prices will continue to be under pressure. In China, new grains in the Northeast are in the peak listing period, with high selling enthusiasm among farmers, weak demand in the downstream market, and continuous price cuts by deep - processing enterprises. In the North China and Huang - Huai regions, due to continuous rainy weather, new corn is difficult to preserve, and the price of wet grain has been falling. However, the start of purchases by direct - subordinate warehouses and the expansion of rotation procurement by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation support market sentiment. The corn futures price is in a bearish trend [8]. - Strategy Suggestion: Maintain a long - term bearish view [8]. Corn Starch - Market Review: Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2384 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12]. - Market Outlook: As the supply of new - season corn increases, the cost support for corn starch weakens. After the holiday, the industry's开机 rate has increased significantly, and inventory has slightly increased. As of October 15, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.199 million tons, up 0.80 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 5.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 46.94%. The high inventory and the substitution advantage of cassava starch and wheat starch continue to squeeze the market demand for corn starch. The starch futures price continues to fall [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Change - Corn futures' January contract fluctuated at a low level, with a total position of 769,696 lots, an increase of 212,858 lots from last week. Corn starch futures' January contract fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 179,051 lots, an increase of 76,641 lots from last week [16]. Top Twenty Net Position Change - This week, the top twenty net position of corn futures was - 38,512, compared with - 30,774 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 49,015, compared with - 37,899 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions [22]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 36,709 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 12,806 lots [28]. Spot Price and Basis Trend - As of October 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,271.57 yuan/ton, and the basis between the January active contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 154 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,750 yuan/ton, with a weak adjustment this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 216 yuan/ton [33][38]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread Change - The 11 - 1 spread of corn was - 9 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 10 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [44]. Futures Spread Change between Corn and Starch - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 267 yuan/ton. As of this Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 490 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week [53]. Substitute Spread Change - As of October 16, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,451.94 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,271.57 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 180.37 yuan/ton. In the 42nd week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 299 yuan/ton, widening 31 yuan/ton from last week [58]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Corn Supply Side - Port Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 193,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 194,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 852,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 581,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 110,000 tons [48]. - Monthly Import Volume: In August 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 40,000 tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons or 90.70% compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the same period last month [66]. - Feed Enterprise Inventory: As of October 16, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.44 days, a decrease of 0.05 days from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.94% [70]. Demand Side - Livestock Inventory: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads from the previous month, accounting for 103.5% of the normal reserve of 39 million heads [74]. - Breeding Profit: As of October 10, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was - 152.15 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 301.04 yuan/head [78]. - Processing Enterprise Profit: As of October 16, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 53 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was 263 yuan/ton in Henan, - 200 yuan/ton in Jilin, and 54 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [83]. Corn Starch Supply Side - Enterprise Inventory: As of October 15, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 2.462 million tons, an increase of 5.48% [87]. - Starch Enterprise开机Rate and Inventory: From October 9 to 15, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 581,700 tons, an increase of 37,100 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 293,500 tons, an increase of 25,500 tons from last week; the weekly开机rate was 56.74%, an increase of 4.93% from last week. As of October 15, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.199 million tons, up 0.80 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 5.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 46.94% [91]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of October 17, the main 2601 contract of corn fluctuated at a low level, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 10.87%, a recovery of 1.15% from 9.72% last week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated and recovered, at a slightly high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [94].