Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-17 09:45Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current high laying - hen inventory and lack of over - culling of old hens result in a high - production situation, which, combined with the post - holiday seasonal decline in consumption, is expected to keep the egg supply - demand in a loose state and suppress near - month contracts. The post - holiday drop in spot prices also affects the futures market. However, continuous losses reduce market restocking enthusiasm, which is beneficial for long - term prices. Overall, short - term near - month contracts are restricted by high - production pressure and falling spot prices, while far - month contracts may perform better due to the logic of production capacity reduction [6]. - For near - month contracts, a bearish trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the number of old hen culls [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, egg futures were in a low - level oscillation. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 2959 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 8 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - Market Outlook: High laying - hen inventory and post - holiday consumption decline will maintain the loose supply - demand situation and suppress near - month contracts. Continuous losses reduce restocking enthusiasm, which is good for long - term prices. Near - month contracts are restricted in the short term, while far - month contracts may be stronger [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt a bearish trading strategy for near - month contracts and monitor old hen culling volume [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: The egg futures 12 - contract oscillated at a low level, with an open interest of 218,645 lots, an increase of 26,310 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 traders was - 23,920, a slight decrease in net short positions compared to last week's - 33,849 [12]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 30 [16]. - Spot Price and Basis: The egg spot price was 3008 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 70 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 12 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 49 yuan per ton [22]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 11 - 1 spread of egg futures was - 220 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [26]. - Related Commodity Spot Prices: As of October 16, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.02 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables was 5.03 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply - side: Inventory and Restocking: As of August 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 114.42, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The national new - chick index was 73.35, a month - on - month decrease of 6.44% [38]. - Culling Index and Age: As of August 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 93.61, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. The national average age of culled hens was 510 days [43]. - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of October 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2271.57 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2950 yuan per ton [47]. - Feed Price and Breeding Profit: As of October 10, 2025, the egg - hen breeding profit was - 0.4 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53]. - Egg - hen Chick and Culled - hen Prices: As of October 10, 2025, the average price of egg - hen chicks in the main production areas was 2.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 8.92 yuan per kilogram [58]. - Egg Monthly Exports: In August 2025, China's egg export volume was 13,121.03 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.82% (1281.43 tons more than the same period last year) and a month - on - month increase of 264.92 tons compared to the previous month [63]. 3.4 Representative Company - Xiaoming Co., Ltd.: A figure shows the change in its price - to - earnings ratio, but no specific data is provided [65].