集运指数（欧线）期货周报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight index of container shipping (European route) futures is expected to fluctuate widely in the near term due to the intertwined bullish and bearish factors including the intensifying trade war, the progress of the Middle East "peace plan", and the stable oversupply situation. The "off - peak in peak season" of shipping may continue. The freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more sharply. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [7][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - The prices of the container shipping (European route) futures contracts showed a mixed performance this week. The main contract EC2512 rose 3.09%, while the far - month contracts rose between 1% and 8%. The latest SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index was 1031.80, down 14.7 points from last week, a 1.4% month - on - month decline, with the decline rate narrowing. The main contract price increased slightly, while the trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract fluctuated weakly, and the market adopted a wait - and - see attitude [6][9][10][12][13]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference, expressing an open attitude towards equal consultations on the basis of mutual respect regarding Sino - US economic and trade talks, optimizing the license process for rare earth export control measures, and taking necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. It will also introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned possible extensions of tariff exemptions and a potential meeting between leaders. The Chinese side has clarified its stance. China has officially imposed special port fees on US ships. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 and maintained that for 2026, and slightly raised the US economic growth forecast [16]. 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the container shipping (European route) futures contracts widened this week. The export container freight rate index declined. The container shipping capacity continued to grow. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly fluctuated [23][27][31][33]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The container shipping (European route) futures prices rose slightly this week. The main contract EC2512 rose 3.09%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1% and 8%. The SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index declined with a narrowing decline rate. The strike at Rotterdam Port intensified, and CMA CGM announced a price increase in November, which boosted the futures price. However, the unclear trade war situation may weaken the freight rate in the long run, and the improvement of the Red Sea shipping situation due to the "peace plan" reduced the support for the futures price. The economic data in the Eurozone was volatile. China's improved export data in September supported container shipping. Overall, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and investors are advised to be cautious [39][40].