瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the average price of the port methanol market strengthened, while the inland methanol market declined weakly. The domestic methanol production decreased slightly, and the enterprise inventory increased. The port inventory decreased overall, but there is still a possibility of an increase in October. The olefin industry's operating rate remained high, and the MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2250 - 2340 range [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the average price of the port methanol market strengthened, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2200 - 2340 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2210 - 2310 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market declined weakly, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2083 - 2078 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2290 - 2300 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: Domestic methanol production decreased slightly due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than recoveries. The enterprise inventory increased due to weak downstream demand and low logistics enthusiasm. The port inventory decreased overall, but there is a possibility of an increase in October due to sufficient import expectations. The olefin industry's operating rate remained high and is expected to continue so in the short term [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2250 - 2340 range [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed lower, with a -1.52% decline in the main contract price [10]. - Inter - period Spread: As of October 17, the MA 1 - 5 spread was -18 [15]. - Position Analysis: No specific information on the trend of net long positions of the top 20 is provided. - Warehouse Receipts: As of October 16, there were 11282 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 100 from last week [24]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of October 17, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2280 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2052.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 227.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.5 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of October 16, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 264 dollars/ton, an increase of 12 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 61 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton from last week [33]. - Basis: As of October 17, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - Upstream: As of October 15, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of October 16, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.93 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.32 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41]. - Industry: As of October 16, China's methanol production was 1983655 tons, a decrease of 47850 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a decrease of 2.36% month - on - month. As of October 15, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 35.99 million tons, an increase of 2.05 million tons from the previous period, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 22.89 million tons, an increase of 11.37 million tons from the previous period. The total port inventory was 149.14 million tons, a decrease of 5.18 million tons from the previous data. In August 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.7598 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59.59%; from January to August, the cumulative imports were 8.2398 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.52%. As of October 16, the methanol import profit was 21.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week [46][50][55]. - Downstream: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 94.21%, a decrease of 0.01% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was -1065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton from last week [58][61].