Group 1: Economic Financing Demand - In September, the financing demand of the real economy showed a year-on-year slowdown, with new RMB loans amounting to 16,080 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,662 billion yuan compared to the previous year[9] - Corporate bond financing reached 105 billion yuan, an increase of 2,031 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a shift towards bond financing[9] - The total financing under the social financing framework was 16,185 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1,631 billion yuan[9] Group 2: Household Financing and Policies - Household financing demand rebounded month-on-month but weakened year-on-year, with new household loans at 3,890 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,110 billion yuan year-on-year[10] - The rebound in housing sales supported household financing demand, with a reported sales amount of 2,527.8 billion yuan in September, a month-on-month increase of 22.1%[10] - The impact of interest subsidy policies on corporate financing has yet to be significantly reflected in the data, with corporate financing demand showing a seasonal recovery[12] Group 3: Household Deposit Behavior - In September, the behavior of households moving deposits weakened, with new RMB deposits amounting to 22,100 billion yuan, an increase of 7,600 billion yuan year-on-year[17] - The A-share market's cooling in September led to a return of some funds from equity investments back to deposits, indicating a decrease in household risk appetite[17] Group 4: M1 and M2 Growth Rates - M1 grew by 7.2% year-on-year in September, while M2 grew by 8.4%, with the M1-M2 growth rate gap narrowing for five consecutive months[18][19] - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 growth rates may lead to improvements in corporate profitability, with a projected PPI year-on-year growth rate of -3.6% by June 2025[19]
居民存款搬家趋缓，股债配置又逢节点
China Post Securities·2025-10-17 09:53