Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-17 09:50Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may face pressure due to weakening supply and demand and accumulating inventory. The Fed's report shows little change in overall economic activity, with a slight decline in retail spending and stable employment. In China, September's CPI and PPI data indicate a complex economic situation. The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and smelting capacity may be limited. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a weak and volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Performance: The Shanghai copper main contract declined in a volatile manner on the weekly line, with a weekly increase or decrease of -1.77% and an amplitude of 4.84%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 84,390 yuan/ton [6]. - International Situation: The Fed's report shows that overall economic activity has changed little, with a slight decline in overall consumer spending, especially retail spending, and stable employment levels [6]. - Domestic Situation: In September, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year. PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, TC fees are in the negative range, and overseas mine disturbances still have an impact. Due to many smelting overhauls and tight supplies of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be limited. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand with inventory accumulation [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Trade with a light position in a weak and volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Contract: As of October 17, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract had a basis of 385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 385 yuan/ton compared to last week. The main contract was quoted at 84,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,520 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the position volume was 215,573 lots, a decrease of 542 lots compared to last week [9]. - Spot Price: As of October 17, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 84,775 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,215 yuan/ton [17]. - Cross - period Contract: As of October 17, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract's cross - month cross - period quote was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [17]. - Premium and Position: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 7,073 lots, an increase of 2,601 lots compared to last week [23]. - Options Market: As of October 17, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell below the 90th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.7621, an increase of 0.0217 compared to last week [28]. 3. Industrial Situation Upstream - Quotes and Processing Fees: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 75,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton compared to last week. The southern blister copper processing fee was quoted at 1,000 yuan/ton, with no change compared to last week [31]. - Imports and Price Difference: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7593 million tons, an increase of 199,200 tons compared to July, with an increase rate of 7.78% and a year - on - year increase rate of 7.27%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 2,941.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,071.9 yuan/ton compared to last week [36]. - Production and Inventory: As of July 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 2,012 thousand tons, an increase of 90 thousand tons compared to June, with an increase rate of 4.68%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.5%, an increase of 0.9% compared to June. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 509,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons compared to the previous week [41]. Supply - side of Refined Copper - Production: As of August 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons compared to July, with an increase rate of 2.44% and a year - on - year increase rate of 16.06%. As of July 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,498 thousand tons, an increase of 77 thousand tons compared to June, with an increase rate of 3.18%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.8%, a decrease of 0.4% compared to June [43][44]. - Imports: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 307,228.226 tons, a decrease of 27,328.7 tons compared to July, with a decrease rate of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase rate of 11.09%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was - 213.37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,423.37 yuan/ton compared to last week [52][53]. - Inventory: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory decreased by 1,950 tons compared to last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 5,127 tons compared to last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 12,885 tons compared to last week. The total social inventory was 183,100 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons compared to last week [56]. Downstream and Applications - Copper Products: As of August 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 52,600 tons compared to July, with an increase rate of 2.42%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to July, with a decrease rate of 10.42% and a year - on - year increase rate of 2.38% [62]. - Applications: As of August 2025, the cumulative investment completion amount of power and grid investment increased by 0.5% and 14% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by - 1.6%, 12.3%, 2.5%, - 0.5%, and - 3.2% year - on - year respectively. The cumulative investment completion amount of real estate development was 603.0919 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 342.912327 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% and a month - on - month increase of 16.42% [66][73]. Overall Situation - Global Supply and Demand: As of July 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of excess supply, with a monthly value of 57 thousand tons. As of August 2025, according to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 256,500 tons [78][79].