Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-17 09:50Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both declined, with soda ash futures down 2.5% and glass futures down 9.28%. Soda ash is expected to have a loose supply and reduced demand, making it difficult for prices to rise, but may rebound slightly if there are interest - rate cut expectations next week. Glass is expected to stop falling and stabilize, with its market fluctuating around demand, and the overall de - stocking trend remaining unchanged [6]. - For the SA2601 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the 1200 - 1260 range, with stop - loss in the 1180 - 1300 range. For the FG2601 contract, operation in the 1080 - 1130 range is recommended, with stop - loss in the 1060 - 1150 range [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures declined, with the market oscillating in the first half of the week due to production cut news and falling further in the second half due to poor glass demand. Glass futures dropped due to negative news in the real - estate industry [6]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, supply - side domestic production and operating rates decreased, but are at a relatively high level and show an upward trend. Demand from the glass industry remained stable at a low level, and there is a possibility of reduced demand from the photovoltaic glass industry. Soda ash enterprise inventories increased. For glass, supply - side production remained at a low level, and demand was affected by the real - estate market. Although the inventory has re - accumulated, the de - stocking trend remains [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: SA2601 contract short - term trading in the 1200 - 1260 range, stop - loss in the 1180 - 1300 range; FG2601 contract operation in the 1080 - 1130 range, stop - loss in the 1060 - 1150 range [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Both soda ash and glass futures prices declined this week [8]. - Spot Prices and Basis: Soda ash spot prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. Glass spot prices increased, and the basis weakened, expected to flatten in the future. The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week [12][16][22]. - Specific Data: As of October 16, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the soda ash basis was - 70 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the glass basis was - 35 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash price spread was 88 yuan/ton [14][20][24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Soda Ash Production: This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production volume decreased, and production is expected to increase slightly next week. As of October 16, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%; the weekly production volume was 74.05 tons, a decrease of 3.93% [26][31]. - Enterprise Profits: Soda ash enterprise profits declined, and costs increased. Glass enterprise profits also decreased. Soda ash production capacity is expected to decline next week, and glass production capacity will remain at a low level [33]. - Glass Production: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines decreased by 1, and overall production remained unchanged. There are signs of production line resumption, and production is expected to remain at a low level next week. As of October 16, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 226 in production, and 70 cold - repaired; the national float glass production was 112.89 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0% [38][42]. - Photovoltaic Glass: This week, the domestic photovoltaic glass capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume remained flat and are expected to remain unchanged next week. As of October 16, 2025, the capacity utilization rate was 68.52%, with a week - on - week increase of 0%; the daily melting volume was 88780 tons/day, with a week - on - week increase of 0 tons/day [44][46]. - Enterprise Inventories: Soda ash enterprise inventories increased slightly, and glass enterprise inventories decreased. De - stocking is expected to slow down next week. As of October 16, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventories were 170.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.45%; the total glass inventory was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% [48][52]. - Downstream Demand: Domestic glass downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly, but demand remained low. As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days [54][56].