沪铜短期震荡调整，中期仍以偏多思路对待

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Short - term Volatility and Adjustment of Shanghai Copper, Bullish Outlook in the Medium Term - Guoxin Futures Non - ferrous (Copper) Weekly Report" dated October 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - From October 13 to October 17, Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 84,390 yuan/ton, a 1.77% decline compared to October 10 [6] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Spot Market: As of October 17, the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market was 84,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,850 yuan/ton from October 10, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed to 10 yuan/ton [66] - Supply - side: In August 2025, SMM's China electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. China's refined copper imports in August 2025 were 307,228.23 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14% [66] - Demand - side: As of October 16, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production was 62.5%, and that of recycled copper rod was 18.29% [66] - Inventory: As of October 17, the electrolytic copper inventory was 177,500 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from October 9. As of October 17, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic copper warehouse receipt inventory was 42,849 tons, an increase of 12,885 tons from October 10. From October 10 to October 15, LME copper inventory decreased by 1,900 tons to 137,450 tons, and COMEX electrolytic copper inventory increased by 3,366 tons to 311,378 tons [66] Group 4: Market Outlook - Codelco raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to $325/ton, a record high. The premiums in 2024 and 2025 were $234/ton [66] - In the macro - aspect, the release of the latest US CPI data is postponed to October 24. The market is certain about the Fed's interest rate cut in October and believes the probability of further cuts is high, which will support copper prices. Supply disruptions at the mine end and low copper processing and refining fees will also support copper prices. However, the market's high - price aversion in procurement may limit price increases, leading to short - term high - level volatility. Overall, Shanghai copper is expected to show a bullish trend in the medium term [66]