铁矿周报：铁水见顶，需求下滑-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply of iron ore is rising, demand is declining, downstream profits are weakening, and after continuous inventory accumulation, futures prices may face downward pressure. The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term, and the spot trading volume has increased. Iron water production may have reached its peak and is expected to decline. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global iron ore shipments have increased, with shipments from Australia rising and those from Brazil recovering, while shipments from non - mainstream regions are weak. As of October 12, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,550 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.35% and a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. Australian 7 - day moving average shipment volume was 2,816 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. Brazilian 7 - day moving average shipment volume was 934.9 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 24.5% and a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. [3][24] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 samples decreased by 0.31 tons week - on - week to 241.54 tons. The average daily molten iron production in October was about 241 tons. With more recent overhauls, the molten iron production may have reached its peak and is expected to decline. The profit of finished steel products continued to decline slightly, and the scrap - iron price difference in Tangshan decreased. [3] Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 232,400 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of traded ore was 65.23%. The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills decreased by 9.9 million tons, with the plant inventory decreasing by 2.8712 million tons and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory decreasing by 7.0348 million tons. The available days of imported ore decreased by 3 days to 21 days. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, with the inventory of rebar increasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increasing significantly. [3] Price and Basis - The trading volume of iron ore spot and forward contracts increased significantly. The basis rate of the 01 contract was about 4%, with a slight increase in the basis and an upward basis rate. The 1 - 5 monthly spread fluctuated within a narrow range. [3][158] Variety Differences - The premium of Jinbabu powder weakened, the premiums of mainstream medium - low - grade ores were stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores decreased. [3] Balance Sheet - The total supply of iron ore from 2025/1 to 2026/5 shows certain fluctuations, with production and imports being the main sources. Exports and consumption also vary in different months. There are periods of surplus and deficit. Although the molten iron production is expected to decline, the current level is still relatively high, and the recent consumption is slightly adjusted upwards. [181]