东莞证券财富通每周策略-20251017

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3839.76 points, down 1.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 4.99% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 5.71% [1][5][14] - The initial drop was influenced by tariff threats from the U.S., but subsequent easing signals from both sides led to a temporary recovery before a final pullback [2][14] Economic Indicators - In September, the core CPI rose for the fifth consecutive month, indicating a 1.0% year-on-year increase, while the PPI decreased by 2.3% [10][11] - Social financing and credit growth showed a year-on-year decline, with new social financing at 3.53 trillion yuan, down 229.8 billion yuan from the previous year [10][11] - Exports increased by 8.4% year-on-year in September, while imports rose by 7.5%, marking the highest growth since May 2024 [11][12] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are contributing to rising overall inflation [12][13] - Market expectations are leaning towards a likely interest rate cut in October, with a 95.7% probability of a 25 basis point reduction [13] Sector Recommendations - It is advised to focus on sectors such as finance, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, machinery, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [3][15] Potential Stocks Tracking - The report highlights several potential stocks, including Huaxin Cement, which saw a maximum increase of 17.41% this week, and Longi Green Energy, which has shown resilience despite market fluctuations [21][22]